Probabilistic NASCAR Cup Series predictions — used by bettors and DFS players to find edge before race day.
XGBoost multinomial classifier trained on 2020–2025, ~8K driver-race rows. 16 features blending driver ELO, track-type history, qualifying, and team strength.
Walk-forward validation, no leakage. Every feature is computed using only data available before the race. Predictions are graded against real finishing order.
Win, Top-5, and Top-10 finish probabilities per driver, combined into Expected Points. Pick groups for Win, Top-3, Top-5, Top-10, Sleepers, and High-Risk. The whole field, ranked, every race.
| Track | Race | Date | Rank fit (ρ) | Top-5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville Superspeedway | Cracker Barrel 400 | Sunday, May 31, 2026 | ρ 0.37 | 2/5 |
| Charlotte Motor Speedway | Coca-Cola 600 | Sunday, May 24, 2026 | ρ 0.38 | 2/5 |
| Dover Motor Speedway | NASCAR All-Star Race | Sunday, May 17, 2026 | Exhibition | — |
| Watkins Glen International | Go Bowling at The Glen | Sunday, May 10, 2026 | ρ 0.47 | 2/5 |
| Texas Motor Speedway | Wurth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY | Sunday, May 3, 2026 | ρ 0.46 | 2/5 |
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