Probabilistic NASCAR Cup Series predictions — used by bettors and DFS players to find edge before race day.
XGBoost multinomial classifier trained on 2020–2025, ~8K driver-race rows. 16 features blending driver ELO, track-type history, qualifying, and team strength.
Walk-forward validation, no leakage. Every feature is computed using only data available before the race. Predictions are graded against real finishing order.
Win, Top-5, and Top-10 finish probabilities per driver, combined into Expected Points. Pick groups for Win, Top-3, Top-5, Top-10, Sleepers, and High-Risk. The whole field, ranked, every race.
| Track | Race | Date | Rank fit (ρ) | Top-5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daytona International Speedway | Coke Zero Sugar 400 | Saturday, August 29, 2026 | ρ 0.22 | 0/5 |
| New Hampshire Motor Speedway | Dollar Tree 301 | Sunday, August 23, 2026 | ρ 0.46 | 1/5 |
| Richmond Raceway | Cook Out 400 | Saturday, August 15, 2026 | ρ 0.69 | 3/5 |
| Iowa Speedway | Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol | Sunday, August 9, 2026 | ρ 0.38 | 3/5 |
| Indianapolis Motor Speedway | Brickyard 400 | Sunday, July 26, 2026 | ρ 0.48 | 2/5 |
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