Probabilistic NASCAR Cup Series predictions — used by bettors and DFS players to find edge before race day.
XGBoost multinomial classifier trained on 2020–2025, ~8K driver-race rows. 16 features blending driver ELO, track-type history, qualifying, and team strength.
Walk-forward validation, no leakage. Every feature is computed using only data available before the race. Predictions are graded against real finishing order.
Win, Top-5, and Top-10 finish probabilities per driver, combined into Expected Points. Pick groups for Win, Top-3, Top-5, Top-10, Sleepers, and High-Risk. The whole field, ranked, every race.
| Track | Race | Date | Rank fit (ρ) | Top-5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EchoPark Speedway | Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart | Sunday, July 12, 2026 | ρ 0.47 | 1/5 |
| Chicagoland Speedway | NCS Race at Chicagoland | Sunday, July 5, 2026 | ρ 0.59 | 2/5 |
| Sonoma Raceway | Toyota/Save Mart 350 | Sunday, June 28, 2026 | ρ 0.61 | 3/5 |
| Naval Base Coronado | Anduril 250 | Sunday, June 21, 2026 | ρ 0.41 | 0/5 |
| Pocono Raceway | Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA | Sunday, June 14, 2026 | ρ 0.61 | 2/5 |
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