Probabilistic NASCAR Cup Series predictions — used by bettors and DFS players to find edge before race day.
XGBoost multinomial classifier trained on 2020–2025, ~8K driver-race rows. 16 features blending driver ELO, track-type history, qualifying, and team strength.
Walk-forward validation, no leakage. Every feature is computed using only data available before the race. Predictions are graded against real finishing order.
Win, Top-5, and Top-10 finish probabilities per driver, combined into Expected Points. Pick groups for Win, Top-3, Top-5, Top-10, Sleepers, and High-Risk. The whole field, ranked, every race.
| Track | Race | Date | Rank fit (ρ) | Top-5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Motor Speedway | Bank of America 400 | Sunday, October 11, 2026 | ρ 0.45 | 2/5 |
| Las Vegas Motor Speedway | South Point 400 | Sunday, October 4, 2026 | ρ 0.68 | 2/5 |
| Kansas Speedway | Hollywood Casino 400 | Sunday, September 27, 2026 | ρ 0.73 | 2/5 |
| Bristol Motor Speedway | Bass Pro Shops Night Race | Saturday, September 19, 2026 | ρ 0.67 | 4/5 |
| World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway | Enjoy Illinois 300 | Sunday, September 13, 2026 | ρ 0.17 | 1/5 |
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