Grid Walk / Cup Series
Model live
Next Race: Sunday July 19th 2026

Walk the grid before the race.

Probabilistic NASCAR Cup Series predictions — used by bettors and DFS players to find edge before race day.

See this week's race → North Wilkesboro Speedway · Short Track
40%
Top-5 hit rate
vs ~14% random
23%
Winner call rate
vs ~3% random
0.43
Rank fit (ρ)
1.0 = perfect order · 0 = random
56
Races graded
since 2025

01 This Week

Sunday, July 19, 2026
North Wilkesboro Speedway
Window World 400
Track TypeShort Track
Field38 drivers
Open the race sheet →
Top Win Picks
1. Ryan Blaney17.4%
2. Denny Hamlin11.8%
3. Carson Hocevar10.9%
How it works
The Model

XGBoost multinomial classifier trained on 2020–2025, ~8K driver-race rows. 16 features blending driver ELO, track-type history, qualifying, and team strength.

The Method

Walk-forward validation, no leakage. Every feature is computed using only data available before the race. Predictions are graded against real finishing order.

The Output

Win, Top-5, and Top-10 finish probabilities per driver, combined into Expected Points. Pick groups for Win, Top-3, Top-5, Top-10, Sleepers, and High-Risk. The whole field, ranked, every race.

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02 Track Record

Last 5 races
TrackRaceDateRank fit (ρ)Top-5
EchoPark Speedway Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart Sunday, July 12, 2026 ρ 0.47 1/5
Chicagoland Speedway NCS Race at Chicagoland Sunday, July 5, 2026 ρ 0.59 2/5
Sonoma Raceway Toyota/Save Mart 350 Sunday, June 28, 2026 ρ 0.61 3/5
Naval Base Coronado Anduril 250 Sunday, June 21, 2026 ρ 0.41 0/5
Pocono Raceway Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA Sunday, June 14, 2026 ρ 0.61 2/5
Grid Walk · Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) · thegridwalk.com Free preview · Race Week Pass for the full board
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