RACE 36 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • PRE-QUALIFYING

Homestead-Miami SpeedwayNASCAR Cup Series Championship

DateSunday, November 8, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field37 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Homestead-Miami Speedway Updated 2026-11-02 10:00

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-11-02 10:00

Best by Expected Points · Win 18.7%

Kyle Larson • #5 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6).

Lowest DNF risk: Tyler Reddick (7.6%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Kyle Larson

Win 18.7% • Top-5 55% • EP 5.51

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Kyle Larson

Top-10 prob 67% • DNF 9.3%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Christopher Bell

Win prob 8.9% • Started P3

Risk Flag

Shane van Gisbergen

DNF prob 20.7%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

35%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.49

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 18.7%

Top-5 55%

Exp pts 5.51

Start P6

Driver ELO 1510

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6).

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 9.6%

Top-5 39%

Exp pts 4.74

Start P5

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5).

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 14.0%

Top-5 36%

Exp pts 4.69

Start P2

Driver ELO 1493

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#5Kyle Larson

18.7%

#12Ryan Blaney

14.0%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

37.0%

#12Ryan Blaney

25.2%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

55.3%

#11Denny Hamlin

39.1%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

67.3%

#11Denny Hamlin

62.1%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Value

#5Kyle Larson

5.00

#11Denny Hamlin

4.22

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#97Shane van Gisbergen

20.7%

#66Josh Bilicki

20.1%

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

#38Zane Smith

— SUB

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#16A.J. Allmendinger

Avg P6 • 4 starts (best P3)

#48Alex Bowman

Avg P11 • 5 starts (best P2)

#3Austin Dillon

Avg P12 • 6 starts (best P4)

#23Bubba Wallace

Avg P12 • 5 starts (best P3)

#60Ryan Preece

Avg P15 • 5 starts (best P9)

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	5.51	18.7%	37.0%	55%	67%	9.3%	1510	25.3	11 (5)	—
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.74	9.6%	24.3%	39%	62%	10.9%	1513	29.7	10 (6)	—
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	4.69	14.0%	25.2%	36%	60%	15.4%	1493	25.8	15 (6)	—
4	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	4.53	5.6%	20.7%	36%	59%	7.6%	1508	23.1	9 (6)	—
5	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.27	13.2%	24.2%	35%	50%	13.8%	1505	29.7	17 (5)	—
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.51	18.7%	55%	67%	80%	91%	9.3%
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.74	9.6%	39%	62%	77%	89%	10.9%
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	4.69	14.0%	36%	60%	75%	85%	15.4%
4	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	4.53	5.6%	36%	59%	78%	92%	7.6%
5	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.27	13.2%	35%	50%	66%	86%	13.8%
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	5.51	1510	1512	25.3	—	-1.3
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.74	1513	1512	29.7	—	-3.0
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	4.69	1493	1514	25.8	—	+1.8
4	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	4.53	1508	1511	23.1	—	-2.5
5	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.27	1505	1515	29.7	—	+0.7
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-11-02 10:00