EXHIBITION 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE • EXHIBITION

Dover Motor SpeedwayNASCAR All-Star Race

DateSunday, May 17, 2026

Track TypeShort Track

Field19 drivers

SHORT TRACKEXHIBITION

Dover Motor Speedway Updated 2026-05-16 21:57 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-05-16 21:57

Best by Expected Points · Win 12.2%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: front-row start (P1), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

Top by every metric this week — Expected Points, Win odds, and DNF avoidance. See full picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 12.2% • Top-5 43% • EP 5.33

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 64% • DNF 4.7%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Tyler Reddick

Win prob 6.5% • Started P14

Risk Flag

Kyle Larson

DNF prob 18.7%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 94/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

94/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.60

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 12.2%

Top-5 43%

Exp pts 5.33

Start P1

Driver ELO 1507

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P1), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win 7.3%

Top-5 33%

Exp pts 4.87

Start P9

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P9).

#6 RFK Racing

Brad Keselowski

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#6 RFK Racing

Brad Keselowski

Win 7.8%

Top-5 34%

Exp pts 4.56

Start P2

Driver ELO 1498

Track-type ELO 1506

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

12.2%

#6Brad Keselowski

7.8%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

27.6%

#6Brad Keselowski

20.8%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

43.0%

#6Brad Keselowski

33.8%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

64.5%

#54Ty Gibbs

53.2%

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

5.08

#54Ty Gibbs

4.51

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#5Kyle Larson

18.7%

#12Ryan Blaney

14.7%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#8Kyle Busch

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#77Carson Hocevar

Boost • +0.74 (start P24)

#1Ross Chastain

Boost • +0.64 (start P4)

#2Austin Cindric

Top-10 • +0.60 (start P10)

#8Kyle Busch

Boost • +0.56 (start P11)

#54Ty Gibbs

Win • +0.55 (start P9)

05 Full Projections

19 drivers • top 5 free19 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.33	12.2%	27.6%	43%	64%	4.7%	1507	26.8	—	+0.24
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	4.87	7.3%	20.0%	33%	53%	7.4%	1514	26.8	—	+0.55
3	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P2	4.56	7.8%	20.8%	34%	51%	5.1%	1498	27.1	—	+0.15
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P7	4.33	4.5%	14.9%	25%	44%	6.5%	1498	22.9	—	+0.51
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	4.10	2.9%	18.0%	33%	49%	5.9%	1493	24.9	—	-0.58
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.33	12.2%	43%	64%	83%	95%	4.7%
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.87	7.3%	33%	53%	78%	93%	7.4%
3	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	4.56	7.8%	34%	51%	79%	95%	5.1%
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	4.33	4.5%	25%	44%	73%	94%	6.5%
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	4.10	2.9%	33%	49%	77%	94%	5.9%
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.33	1507	1509	26.8	+12.6	-5.2
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	4.87	1514	1515	26.8	+4.6	-2.3
3	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P2	4.56	1498	1506	27.1	+11.6	+8.2
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P7	4.33	1498	1509	22.9	+6.6	-3.5
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	4.10	1493	1496	24.9	+8.6	-4.3
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

14 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Full board.

All 19 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-05-16 21:57 • Practice blended