RACE 35 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Martinsville SpeedwayXfinity 500

DateSunday, November 1, 2026

Track TypeShort Track

Field37 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Martinsville Speedway Updated 2026-11-01 21:16 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-11-01 21:16

Best by Expected Points · Win 11.2%

Joey Logano • #22 Team Penske

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Ryan Blaney (19.2%) · Lowest DNF risk: Ryan Preece (4.1%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Joey Logano

Win 11.2% • Top-5 44% • EP 4.85

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Joey Logano

Top-10 prob 69% • DNF 4.7%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Chase Briscoe

Win prob 9.4% • Started P11

Risk Flag

Cody Ware

DNF prob 36.3%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 91/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

91/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

57%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.59

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win 11.2%

Top-5 44%

Exp pts 4.85

Start P5

Driver ELO 1495

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 19.2%

Top-5 48%

Exp pts 4.79

Start P13

Driver ELO 1493

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, strong organization rating, avg P5 at this track.

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 7.9%

Top-5 45%

Exp pts 4.67

Start P9

Driver ELO 1494

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P9), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

19.2%

#22Joey Logano

11.2%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

33.4%

#22Joey Logano

27.8%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

47.5%

#5Kyle Larson

46.9%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#22Joey Logano

68.6%

#9Chase Elliott

67.0%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Value

#22Joey Logano

4.62

#9Chase Elliott

4.46

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#51Cody Ware

36.3%

#66Josh Bilicki

31.3%

#3Austin Dillon

— SUB

#35Riley Herbst

— SUB

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#1Ross Chastain

Top-10 • +0.41 (start P16)

#33Austin Hill

Boost • +0.25 (start P17)

#21Josh Berry

Boost • +0.23 (start P10)

#71Michael McDowell

Boost • +0.15 (start P26)

#3Austin Dillon

Boost • +0.08 (start P20)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#48Alex Bowman

Avg P16 • 11 starts (best P1)

#34Todd Gilliland

Avg P18 • 9 starts (best P9)

#97Shane van Gisbergen

Avg P18 • 4 starts (best P11)

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P5	4.85	11.2%	27.8%	44%	69%	4.7%	1495	26.5	6 (13)	—
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P13	4.79	19.2%	33.4%	48%	61%	7.6%	1493	26.5	5 (13)	—
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P9	4.67	7.9%	26.5%	45%	67%	4.4%	1494	24.7	6 (13)	—
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	4.63	7.1%	27.0%	47%	65%	6.7%	1516	24.7	6 (11)	—
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	4.53	7.6%	24.5%	41%	64%	5.2%	1510	29.3	12 (13)	—
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	4.85	11.2%	44%	69%	86%	95%	4.7%
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	4.79	19.2%	48%	61%	77%	92%	7.6%
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	4.67	7.9%	45%	67%	82%	96%	4.4%
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.63	7.1%	47%	65%	82%	93%	6.7%
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.53	7.6%	41%	64%	81%	95%	5.2%
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P5	4.85	1495	1511	26.5	+14.0	+2.0
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P13	4.79	1493	1515	26.5	+6.0	-3.7
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P9	4.67	1494	1514	24.7	+10.0	+6.5
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	4.63	1516	1493	24.7	+16.0	-0.7
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	4.53	1510	1497	29.3	+18.0	+1.2
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-11-01 21:16 • Practice blended