RACE 34 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • PRE-QUALIFYING

Talladega SuperspeedwayYellawood 500

DateSunday, October 25, 2026

Track TypeSuperspeedway

Field37 drivers

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Talladega Superspeedway Updated 2026-10-19 02:14

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-10-19 02:14

Best by Expected Points · Win 10.7%

Austin Cindric • #2 Team Penske

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6), strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Tyler Reddick (10.8%) · Lowest DNF risk: Alex Bowman (12.7%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Austin Cindric

Win 10.7% • Top-5 30% • EP 4.27

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Austin Cindric

Top-10 prob 55% • DNF 17.6%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Win prob 5.6% • Started P5

Risk Flag

Cody Ware

DNF prob 32.4%

Race Confidence

CHAOS • 18/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L7 of superspeedway

18/100

CHAOS RACE

Plate-race outcomes diverge from the model — drafting luck and late wrecks dominate. Honesty over confidence.

Win pick hit rate

14%

Top-5 hit rate

14%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.10

Chaos race Superspeedway results historically diverge from the model. Survival probability matters more than expected finish — read this card as guidance, not a forecast.

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#2 Team Penske

Austin Cindric

Win 10.7%

Top-5 30%

Exp pts 4.27

Start P6

Driver ELO 1504

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6), strong organization rating.

#48 Hendrick Motorsports

Alex Bowman

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#48 Hendrick Motorsports

Alex Bowman

Win 3.4%

Top-5 23%

Exp pts 3.99

Start P8

Driver ELO 1497

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 10.8%

Top-5 28%

Exp pts 3.82

Start P2

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2). Watch-out: elevated DNF risk (23%).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

10.8%

#2Austin Cindric

10.7%

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

#60Ryan Preece

— SUB

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#2Austin Cindric

20.3%

#45Tyler Reddick

19.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#60Ryan Preece

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#2Austin Cindric

30.0%

#45Tyler Reddick

28.0%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#2Austin Cindric

55.4%

#48Alex Bowman

52.6%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#60Ryan Preece

— SUB

Best Value

#2Austin Cindric

3.52

#48Alex Bowman

3.48

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#60Ryan Preece

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#51Cody Ware

32.4%

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

31.6%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#34Todd Gilliland

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

Unlock with subscription

Track Sleepers

#24William Byron

Avg P12 • 13 starts (best P2)

#34Todd Gilliland

Avg P13 • 9 starts (best P2)

#77Carson Hocevar

Avg P13 • 6 starts (best P1)

#43Erik Jones

Avg P16 • 13 starts (best P2)

#9Chase Elliott

Avg P16 • 13 starts (best P1)

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	4.27	10.7%	20.3%	30%	55%	17.6%	1504	27.5	18 (9)	—
2	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	3.99	3.4%	13.0%	23%	53%	12.7%	1497	24.1	17 (12)	—
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	3.82	10.8%	19.4%	28%	45%	23.1%	1516	23.7	18 (13)	—
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	3.49	3.1%	14.7%	26%	42%	19.5%	1498	30.2	15 (13)	—
5	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	3.42	5.2%	13.2%	21%	41%	16.6%	1505	23.2	21 (11)	—
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	4.27	10.7%	30%	55%	71%	82%	17.6%
2	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	3.99	3.4%	23%	53%	75%	87%	12.7%
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	3.82	10.8%	28%	45%	64%	77%	23.1%
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	3.49	3.1%	26%	42%	61%	81%	19.5%
5	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	3.42	5.2%	21%	41%	60%	83%	16.6%
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	4.27	1504	1511	27.5	—	-8.2
2	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	3.99	1497	1509	24.1	—	-5.2
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	3.82	1516	1513	23.7	—	+8.7
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	3.49	1498	1508	30.2	—	-6.0
5	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	3.42	1505	1514	23.2	—	-6.2
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 37 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-10-19 02:14