RACE 33 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Phoenix RacewayFreeway Insurance 500

DateSunday, October 18, 2026

Track TypeShort Track

Field37 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Phoenix Raceway Updated 2026-10-18 01:56 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-10-18 01:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 18.1%

Ryan Blaney • #12 Team Penske

Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Denny Hamlin (18.9%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Ryan Blaney

Win 18.1% • Top-5 54% • EP 5.26

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Ryan Blaney

Top-10 prob 68% • DNF 3.6%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Ty Gibbs

Win prob 7.1% • Started P7

Risk Flag

Cody Ware

DNF prob 29.8%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 91/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

91/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.57

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 18.1%

Top-5 54%

Exp pts 5.26

Start P1

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1494

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 18.9%

Top-5 43%

Exp pts 4.82

Start P4

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1510

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4), strong organization rating.

#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win 16.3%

Top-5 40%

Exp pts 4.79

Start P2

Driver ELO 1511

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

18.9%

#12Ryan Blaney

18.1%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

36.2%

#11Denny Hamlin

30.9%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

54.2%

#11Denny Hamlin

42.8%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

67.9%

#22Joey Logano

67.2%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Value

#12Ryan Blaney

5.07

#11Denny Hamlin

4.61

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#51Cody Ware

29.8%

#48Alex Bowman

23.6%

#Corey Heim

— SUB

#35Riley Herbst

— SUB

#Austin Hill

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#21Josh Berry

Top-10 • +0.41 (start P9)

#34Todd Gilliland

Boost • +0.27 (start P13)

#35Riley Herbst

Boost • +0.23 (start P19)

#43Erik Jones

Boost • +0.17 (start P29)

#71Michael McDowell

Top-10 • +0.06 (start P8)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#17Chris Buescher

Avg P13 • 13 starts (best P2)

#48Alex Bowman

Avg P16 • 12 starts (best P7)

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	5.26	18.1%	36.2%	54%	68%	3.6%	1514	27.3	8 (13)	—
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.82	18.9%	30.9%	43%	62%	4.3%	1513	30.3	9 (13)	—
3	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P2	4.79	16.3%	28.4%	40%	67%	4.9%	1511	27.3	11 (13)	—
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	4.34	9.3%	22.9%	36%	60%	6.2%	1514	30.3	12 (13)	—
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P10	4.21	5.1%	18.4%	32%	62%	5.2%	1492	24.4	11 (13)	—
6	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22		Connor Zilisch		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36		Austin Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	5.26	18.1%	54%	68%	88%	96%	3.6%
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.82	18.9%	43%	62%	81%	96%	4.3%
3	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	4.79	16.3%	40%	67%	81%	95%	4.9%
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.34	9.3%	36%	60%	78%	94%	6.2%
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	4.21	5.1%	32%	62%	81%	95%	5.2%
6	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22		Connor Zilisch		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36		Austin Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	5.26	1514	1494	27.3	+18.0	-3.7
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.82	1513	1510	30.3	+15.0	+5.5
3	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P2	4.79	1511	1514	27.3	+17.0	+4.8
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	4.34	1514	1513	30.3	+14.0	+0.3
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P10	4.21	1492	1509	24.4	+9.0	-3.2
6	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22		Connor Zilisch		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36		Austin Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-10-18 01:56 • Practice blended