RACE 32 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Charlotte Motor SpeedwayBank of America 400

DateSunday, October 11, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field37 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Charlotte Motor Speedway Updated 2026-10-11 21:15 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-10-11 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 18.4%

Kyle Larson • #5 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

Lowest DNF risk: Christopher Bell (8.6%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Kyle Larson

Win 18.4% • Top-5 51% • EP 5.28

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Kyle Larson

Top-10 prob 64% • DNF 11.2%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Ty Gibbs

Win prob 7.9% • Started P3

Risk Flag

Josh Bilicki

DNF prob 22.2%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 18.4%

Top-5 51%

Exp pts 5.28

Start P4

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 9.1%

Top-5 40%

Exp pts 4.82

Start P1

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 6.1%

Top-5 34%

Exp pts 4.34

Start P7

Driver ELO 1501

Track-type ELO 1500

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P7), strong organization rating, avg P12 at this track.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#5Kyle Larson

18.4%

#45Tyler Reddick

9.1%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

34.5%

#45Tyler Reddick

24.5%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

50.6%

#45Tyler Reddick

39.9%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

64.5%

#45Tyler Reddick

64.3%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Value

#5Kyle Larson

4.69

#45Tyler Reddick

4.29

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#Josh Bilicki

22.2%

#2Austin Cindric

19.1%

#38Zane Smith

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

#97Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#5Kyle Larson

Win • +0.45 (start P4)

#19Chase Briscoe

Top-5 • +0.42 (start P8)

#7Daniel Suarez

Boost • +0.39 (start P20)

#17Chris Buescher

Boost • +0.36 (start P5)

#77Carson Hocevar

Boost • +0.34 (start P27)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#Kyle Busch

Avg P11 • 7 starts (best P2)

#16A.J. Allmendinger

Avg P12 • 3 starts (best P4)

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Avg P14 • 8 starts (best P4)

#48Alex Bowman

Avg P16 • 8 starts (best P5)

#21Josh Berry

Avg P17 • 3 starts (best P10)

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	5.28	18.4%	34.5%	51%	64%	11.2%	1516	24.2	16 (5)	+0.45
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	4.82	9.1%	24.5%	40%	64%	11.0%	1515	23.9	10 (8)	+0.31
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	4.34	6.1%	19.9%	34%	55%	8.6%	1501	30.3	12 (8)	+0.18
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	4.15	6.8%	21.0%	35%	51%	15.2%	1517	30.3	18 (6)	+0.42
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P13	4.05	3.8%	15.5%	27%	49%	11.8%	1513	24.2	10 (8)	+0.23
6	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24		Justin Haley		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25		Kyle Busch		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Josh Bilicki		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.28	18.4%	51%	64%	74%	89%	11.2%
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	4.82	9.1%	40%	64%	77%	89%	11.0%
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.34	6.1%	34%	55%	73%	91%	8.6%
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.15	6.8%	35%	51%	66%	85%	15.2%
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	4.05	3.8%	27%	49%	76%	88%	11.8%
6	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24		Justin Haley		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25		Kyle Busch		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Josh Bilicki		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	5.28	1516	1515	24.2	+15.0	-5.7
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	4.82	1515	1514	23.9	+18.0	+2.2
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	4.34	1501	1500	30.3	+12.0	+3.8
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	4.15	1517	1515	30.3	+11.0	-2.2
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P13	4.05	1513	1512	24.2	+6.0	+2.7
6	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24		Justin Haley		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25		Kyle Busch		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Josh Bilicki		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Full board.

All 37 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-10-11 21:15 • Practice blended