RACE 31 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Las Vegas Motor SpeedwaySouth Point 400

DateSunday, October 4, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field36 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Updated 2026-10-04 21:15 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-10-04 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 11.2%

Christopher Bell • #20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

Best Win odds: Kyle Larson (14.4%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Christopher Bell

Win 11.2% • Top-5 52% • EP 4.78

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Christopher Bell

Top-10 prob 65% • DNF 5.7%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Chase Briscoe

Win prob 9.2% • Started P4

Risk Flag

Austin Cindric

DNF prob 19.0%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 11.2%

Top-5 52%

Exp pts 4.78

Start P3

Driver ELO 1512

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 14.4%

Top-5 49%

Exp pts 4.64

Start P6

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6).

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 9.2%

Top-5 37%

Exp pts 4.36

Start P1

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#5Kyle Larson

14.4%

#20Christopher Bell

11.2%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

31.6%

#20Christopher Bell

31.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

51.6%

#5Kyle Larson

48.8%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

65.3%

#11Denny Hamlin

62.7%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Value

#20Christopher Bell

4.51

#5Kyle Larson

4.05

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#2Austin Cindric

19.0%

#Shane van Gisbergen

16.9%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#33Austin Hill

— SUB

#42John Hunter Nemechek

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#1Ross Chastain

Boost • +0.25 (start P17)

#88Connor Zilisch

Boost • +0.16 (start P31)

#6Brad Keselowski

Boost • +0.08 (start P16)

#48Alex Bowman

Boost • +0.04 (start P15)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#48Alex Bowman

Avg P13 • 11 starts (best P1)

#17Chris Buescher

Avg P16 • 13 starts (best P6)

#16A.J. Allmendinger

Avg P16 • 6 starts (best P8)

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	4.78	11.2%	31.4%	52%	65%	5.7%	1512	29.7	15 (13)	—
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P6	4.64	14.4%	31.6%	49%	62%	12.7%	1516	23.9	8 (12)	—
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	4.36	9.2%	23.0%	37%	63%	9.8%	1515	29.7	10 (13)	—
4	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P5	4.08	5.1%	19.8%	35%	59%	10.1%	1509	23.4	15 (13)	—
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	4.04	6.0%	19.0%	32%	56%	9.9%	1512	23.9	12 (13)	—
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25		Shane van Gisbergen		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.78	11.2%	52%	65%	79%	94%	5.7%
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.64	14.4%	49%	62%	76%	87%	12.7%
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.36	9.2%	37%	63%	79%	90%	9.8%
4	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	4.08	5.1%	35%	59%	76%	90%	10.1%
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	4.04	6.0%	32%	56%	78%	90%	9.9%
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25		Shane van Gisbergen		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	4.78	1512	1512	29.7	+15.5	+7.8
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P6	4.64	1516	1515	23.9	+12.5	-11.7
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	4.36	1515	1514	29.7	+17.5	+0.7
4	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P5	4.08	1509	1509	23.4	+13.5	-2.0
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	4.04	1512	1511	23.9	+10.5	+3.3
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25		Shane van Gisbergen		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

31 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-10-04 21:15 • Practice blended