RACE 30 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Kansas SpeedwayHollywood Casino 400

DateSunday, September 27, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field36 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Kansas Speedway Updated 2026-09-27 21:15

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-09-27 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 10.0%

Christopher Bell • #20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3), strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Kyle Larson (11.9%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Christopher Bell

Win 10.0% • Top-5 51% • EP 5.10

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Christopher Bell

Top-10 prob 65% • DNF 7.6%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Joey Logano

Win prob 6.6% • Started P1

Risk Flag

Ross Chastain

DNF prob 21.4%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 10.0%

Top-5 51%

Exp pts 5.10

Start P3

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1503

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3), strong organization rating.

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 11.9%

Top-5 40%

Exp pts 4.73

Start P2

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1516

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 7.8%

Top-5 37%

Exp pts 4.57

Start P6

Driver ELO 1512

Track-type ELO 1510

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#5Kyle Larson

11.9%

#20Christopher Bell

10.0%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

30.5%

#5Kyle Larson

26.0%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

50.9%

#5Kyle Larson

40.2%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

64.5%

#5Kyle Larson

60.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Value

#20Christopher Bell

4.71

#5Kyle Larson

4.18

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#1Ross Chastain

21.4%

#3Austin Dillon

20.4%

#Shane Van Gisbergen

— SUB

#4Noah Gragson

— SUB

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

Unlock with subscription

Track Sleepers

#48Alex Bowman

Avg P11 • 12 starts (best P3)

#1Ross Chastain

Avg P12 • 11 starts (best P1)

#17Chris Buescher

Avg P16 • 13 starts (best P2)

#3Austin Dillon

Avg P18 • 13 starts (best P10)

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	5.10	10.0%	30.5%	51%	65%	7.6%	1514	28.9	12 (13)	—
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	4.73	11.9%	26.0%	40%	60%	11.7%	1516	23.4	6 (11)	—
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	4.57	7.8%	22.4%	37%	57%	10.6%	1512	28.9	8 (13)	—
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	4.15	7.8%	18.5%	29%	50%	11.2%	1513	28.9	23 (8)	—
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	4.06	7.3%	18.0%	29%	50%	15.2%	1511	23.4	11 (13)	—
6	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22		Shane Van Gisbergen		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.10	10.0%	51%	65%	78%	92%	7.6%
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.73	11.9%	40%	60%	74%	88%	11.7%
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.57	7.8%	37%	57%	78%	89%	10.6%
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.15	7.8%	29%	50%	73%	89%	11.2%
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	4.06	7.3%	29%	50%	71%	85%	15.2%
6	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22		Shane Van Gisbergen		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	5.10	1514	1503	28.9	+15.5	+7.7
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	4.73	1516	1516	23.4	+16.5	-12.3
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	4.57	1512	1510	28.9	+12.5	+0.2
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	4.15	1513	1504	28.9	+13.5	+3.3
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	4.06	1511	1514	23.4	+10.5	+4.2
6	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22		Shane Van Gisbergen		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

31 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Full board.

All 36 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-09-27 21:15