RACE 28 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

World Wide Technology Raceway at GatewayEnjoy Illinois 300

DateSunday, September 13, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field36 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway Updated 2026-09-13 21:15 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-09-13 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 15.8%

Christopher Bell • #20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

Best Win odds: Kyle Larson (16.1%) · Lowest DNF risk: Chase Elliott (7.9%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Christopher Bell

Win 15.8% • Top-5 53% • EP 4.87

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Christopher Bell

Top-10 prob 67% • DNF 10.3%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Bubba Wallace

Win prob 8.9% • Started P7

Risk Flag

Josh Berry

DNF prob 19.1%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 15.8%

Top-5 53%

Exp pts 4.87

Start P4

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 16.1%

Top-5 39%

Exp pts 4.48

Start P2

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 11.0%

Top-5 34%

Exp pts 4.25

Start P3

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#5Kyle Larson

16.1%

#20Christopher Bell

15.8%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

34.4%

#5Kyle Larson

27.7%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

53.0%

#5Kyle Larson

39.3%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

66.8%

#9Chase Elliott

60.6%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Value

#20Christopher Bell

4.37

#5Kyle Larson

3.97

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#21Josh Berry

19.1%

#35Riley Herbst

16.8%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#21Josh Berry

Boost • +0.30 (start P16)

#34Todd Gilliland

Boost • +0.15 (start P34)

#6Brad Keselowski

Boost • +0.13 (start P23)

#97Shane van Gisbergen

Boost • +0.12 (start P35)

#1Ross Chastain

Boost • +0.10 (start P20)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#17Chris Buescher

Avg P12 • 3 starts (best P9)

#16A.J. Allmendinger

Avg P16 • 3 starts (best P10)

#71Michael McDowell

Avg P16 • 4 starts (best P9)

#1Ross Chastain

Avg P16 • 4 starts (best P8)

#3Austin Dillon

Avg P18 • 4 starts (best P6)

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.87	15.8%	34.4%	53%	67%	10.3%	1516	29.5	8 (4)	—
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	4.48	16.1%	27.7%	39%	58%	11.4%	1513	23.1	10 (4)	—
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P3	4.25	11.0%	22.6%	34%	59%	12.1%	1513	25.8	10 (4)	—
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P10	4.22	6.6%	22.8%	39%	58%	9.3%	1505	29.5	10 (4)	—
5	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	4.19	5.1%	20.5%	36%	61%	7.9%	1507	23.1	12 (3)	—
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.87	15.8%	53%	67%	76%	90%	10.3%
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.48	16.1%	39%	58%	77%	89%	11.4%
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	4.25	11.0%	34%	59%	77%	88%	12.1%
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.22	6.6%	39%	58%	78%	91%	9.3%
5	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	4.19	5.1%	36%	61%	78%	92%	7.9%
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.87	1516	1515	29.5	+14.5	+6.3
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	4.48	1513	1513	23.1	+16.5	-12.0
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P3	4.25	1513	1514	25.8	+15.5	+4.2
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P10	4.22	1505	1504	29.5	+8.5	+0.0
5	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	4.19	1507	1507	23.1	+10.5	-4.7
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

31 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-09-13 21:15 • Practice blended