RACE 27 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Darlington RacewayCook Out Southern 500

DateSunday, September 6, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field38 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Darlington Raceway Updated 2026-09-06 21:15

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-09-06 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 10.9%

Tyler Reddick • #45 23XI Racing

Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: Connor Zilisch (9.4%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Tyler Reddick

Win 10.9% • Top-5 39% • EP 4.71

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Tyler Reddick

Top-10 prob 60% • DNF 12.7%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Daniel Suarez

Win prob 6.1% • Started P2

Risk Flag

Chad Finchum

DNF prob 34.8%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 10.9%

Top-5 39%

Exp pts 4.71

Start P1

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 7.4%

Top-5 37%

Exp pts 4.53

Start P4

Driver ELO 1510

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P4), strong organization rating.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 7.7%

Top-5 36%

Exp pts 4.43

Start P7

Driver ELO 1508

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P7), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

10.9%

#19Chase Briscoe

7.7%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#7Daniel Suarez

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

24.9%

#11Denny Hamlin

22.3%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

39.0%

#11Denny Hamlin

37.3%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

60.3%

#11Denny Hamlin

58.6%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Value

#45Tyler Reddick

4.11

#11Denny Hamlin

4.03

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#Chad Finchum

34.8%

#35Riley Herbst

21.7%

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

#33Austin Hill

— SUB

#3Austin Dillon

— SUB

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

Unlock with subscription

Track Sleepers

#22Joey Logano

Avg P13 • 14 starts (best P1)

#43Erik Jones

Avg P14 • 14 starts (best P1)

#1Ross Chastain

Avg P15 • 12 starts (best P3)

#23Bubba Wallace

Avg P18 • 14 starts (best P5)

#16A.J. Allmendinger

Avg P18 • 5 starts (best P5)

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	4.71	10.9%	24.9%	39%	60%	12.7%	1515	23.9	11 (14)	—
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.53	7.4%	22.3%	37%	59%	11.2%	1510	29.5	8 (14)	—
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	4.43	7.7%	22.0%	36%	57%	11.4%	1508	29.5	14 (11)	—
4	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P12	4.26	5.6%	18.0%	30%	53%	9.7%	1508	24.4	12 (14)	—
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P11	4.03	7.6%	19.3%	31%	50%	14.0%	1506	29.5	16 (14)	—
6	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	40	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	4.71	10.9%	39%	60%	76%	87%	12.7%
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.53	7.4%	37%	59%	75%	89%	11.2%
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.43	7.7%	36%	57%	73%	89%	11.4%
4	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	4.26	5.6%	30%	53%	76%	90%	9.7%
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.03	7.6%	31%	50%	66%	86%	14.0%
6	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	40	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	4.71	1515	1509	23.9	+18.5	-4.8
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.53	1510	1513	29.5	+15.5	+2.3
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	4.43	1508	1513	29.5	+12.5	+2.2
4	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P12	4.26	1508	1512	24.4	+7.5	-9.0
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P11	4.03	1506	1515	29.5	+8.5	+5.0
6	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	40	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

33 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 38 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-09-06 21:15