RACE 27 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • PRE-QUALIFYING

Darlington RacewayCook Out Southern 500

DateSunday, September 6, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field41 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Darlington Raceway Updated 2026-08-30 10:00

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-08-30 10:00

Best by Expected Points · Win 11.8%

Brad Keselowski • #6 RFK Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P7), strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Christopher Bell (14.9%) · Lowest DNF risk: Chris Buescher (8.5%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Brad Keselowski

Win 11.8% • Top-5 35% • EP 4.67

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Brad Keselowski

Top-10 prob 59% • DNF 9.0%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Christopher Bell

Win prob 14.9% • Started P1

Risk Flag

Daniel Dye

DNF prob 27.4%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 70/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

70/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.49

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#6 RFK Racing

Brad Keselowski

Win 11.8%

Top-5 35%

Exp pts 4.67

Start P7

Driver ELO 1508

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P7), strong organization rating.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 8.9%

Top-5 39%

Exp pts 4.59

Start P5

Driver ELO 1508

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 8.2%

Top-5 38%

Exp pts 4.57

Start P4

Driver ELO 1510

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P4), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#20Christopher Bell

14.9%

#Corey Heim

12.4%

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

25.2%

#Corey Heim

24.8%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

38.9%

#11Denny Hamlin

38.2%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#Corey Heim

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

59.7%

#6Brad Keselowski

59.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Value

#6Brad Keselowski

4.25

#19Chase Briscoe

4.10

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#Daniel Dye

27.4%

#51Cody Ware

21.1%

#Joey Gase

— SUB

#35Riley Herbst

— SUB

#33Austin Hill

— SUB

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#22Joey Logano

Avg P13 • 14 starts (best P1)

#43Erik Jones

Avg P14 • 14 starts (best P1)

#1Ross Chastain

Avg P15 • 12 starts (best P3)

#23Bubba Wallace

Avg P18 • 14 starts (best P5)

#16A.J. Allmendinger

Avg P18 • 5 starts (best P5)

05 Full Projections

41 drivers • top 5 free41 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	4.67	11.8%	23.4%	35%	59%	9.0%	1508	24.4	12 (14)	—
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.59	8.9%	23.9%	39%	58%	10.6%	1508	29.5	14 (11)	—
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.57	8.2%	23.2%	38%	58%	11.3%	1510	29.5	8 (14)	—
4	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	4.49	5.4%	20.6%	36%	60%	11.1%	1515	23.9	11 (14)	—
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.49	3.4%	20.8%	38%	58%	8.7%	1496	29.5	14 (8)	—
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Casey Mears		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Gray Gaulding		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40		Joey Gase		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
41		Daniel Dye		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	4.67	11.8%	35%	59%	76%	91%	9.0%
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.59	8.9%	39%	58%	74%	89%	10.6%
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.57	8.2%	38%	58%	75%	89%	11.3%
4	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	4.49	5.4%	36%	60%	77%	89%	11.1%
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.49	3.4%	38%	58%	78%	91%	8.7%
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Casey Mears		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Gray Gaulding		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40		Joey Gase		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
41		Daniel Dye		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	4.67	1508	1512	24.4	—	-9.0
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.59	1508	1513	29.5	—	+2.2
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.57	1510	1513	29.5	—	+2.3
4	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	4.49	1515	1509	23.9	—	-4.8
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.49	1496	1508	29.5	—	-4.2
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Casey Mears		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Gray Gaulding		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40		Joey Gase		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
41		Daniel Dye		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-08-30 10:00