RACE 26 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Daytona International SpeedwayCoke Zero Sugar 400

DateSaturday, August 29, 2026

Track TypeSuperspeedway

Field41 drivers

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Daytona International Speedway Updated 2026-08-29 21:15

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-08-29 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 7.2%

Austin Cindric • #2 Team Penske

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Chris Buescher (10.8%) · Lowest DNF risk: William Byron (14.5%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Austin Cindric

Win 7.2% • Top-5 29% • EP 4.04

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Austin Cindric

Top-10 prob 53% • DNF 17.2%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Ross Chastain

Win prob 5.0% • Started P1

Risk Flag

Tyler Reddick

DNF prob 34.6%

Race Confidence

CHAOS • 18/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L7 of superspeedway

18/100

CHAOS RACE

Plate-race outcomes diverge from the model — drafting luck and late wrecks dominate. Honesty over confidence.

Win pick hit rate

14%

Top-5 hit rate

14%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.10

Chaos race Superspeedway results historically diverge from the model. Survival probability matters more than expected finish — read this card as guidance, not a forecast.

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#2 Team Penske

Austin Cindric

Win 7.2%

Top-5 29%

Exp pts 4.04

Start P8

Driver ELO 1508

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 2.7%

Top-5 36%

Exp pts 3.92

Start P12

Driver ELO 1499

Track-type ELO 1498

Why this pick Why: strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type. Watch-out: elevated DNF risk (19%).

#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win 7.3%

Top-5 30%

Exp pts 3.83

Start P9

Driver ELO 1507

Track-type ELO 1491

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P9), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type. Watch-out: elevated DNF risk (19%).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#17Chris Buescher

10.8%

#22Joey Logano

7.3%

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

#60Ryan Preece

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

19.1%

#22Joey Logano

18.6%

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#60Ryan Preece

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

35.5%

#22Joey Logano

29.9%

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#2Austin Cindric

53.1%

#19Chase Briscoe

48.9%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Value

#2Austin Cindric

3.34

#19Chase Briscoe

3.16

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#45Tyler Reddick

34.6%

#Gray Gaulding

31.6%

#4Noah Gragson

— SUB

#41Cole Custer

— SUB

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#42John Hunter Nemechek

Avg P13 • 7 starts (best P5)

#51Cody Ware

Avg P17 • 9 starts (best P4)

#48Alex Bowman

Avg P17 • 13 starts (best P2)

05 Full Projections

41 drivers • top 5 free41 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P8	4.04	7.2%	17.9%	29%	53%	17.2%	1508	26.1	20 (10)	—
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P12	3.92	2.7%	19.1%	36%	49%	19.4%	1499	29.8	20 (11)	—
3	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P9	3.83	7.3%	18.6%	30%	44%	19.0%	1507	26.1	20 (13)	—
4	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P2	3.68	10.8%	18.2%	26%	43%	26.5%	1504	24.5	14 (13)	—
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P13	3.54	2.5%	11.0%	19%	40%	14.5%	1496	23.6	21 (13)	—
6	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Daniel Dye		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39		Joey Gase		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40		Casey Mears		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
41		Gray Gaulding		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	4.04	7.2%	29%	53%	68%	83%	17.2%
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	3.92	2.7%	36%	49%	67%	81%	19.4%
3	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	3.83	7.3%	30%	44%	66%	81%	19.0%
4	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	3.68	10.8%	26%	43%	63%	73%	26.5%
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	3.54	2.5%	19%	40%	71%	85%	14.5%
6	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Daniel Dye		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39		Joey Gase		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40		Casey Mears		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
41		Gray Gaulding		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P8	4.04	1508	1511	26.1	+13.0	-9.5
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P12	3.92	1499	1498	29.8	+9.0	-12.0
3	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P9	3.83	1507	1491	26.1	+12.0	-16.3
4	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P2	3.68	1504	1513	24.5	+19.0	+1.8
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P13	3.54	1496	1494	23.6	+8.0	-1.2
6	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Daniel Dye		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39		Joey Gase		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40		Casey Mears		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
41		Gray Gaulding		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-08-29 21:15