RACE 25 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

New Hampshire Motor SpeedwayDollar Tree 301

DateSunday, August 23, 2026

Track TypeShort Track

Field36 drivers

SHORT TRACK

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Updated 2026-08-23 22:38 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-08-23 22:38

Best by Expected Points · Win 16.4%

Ryan Blaney • #12 Team Penske

Why: top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

Best Win odds: Denny Hamlin (16.9%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Ryan Blaney

Win 16.4% • Top-5 46% • EP 5.96

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 69% • DNF 3.9%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Chase Briscoe

Win prob 9.7% • Started P17

Risk Flag

Cody Ware

DNF prob 36.2%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 91/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

91/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.57

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 16.4%

Top-5 46%

Exp pts 5.96

Start P8

Driver ELO 1507

Track-type ELO 1507

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 16.9%

Top-5 54%

Exp pts 5.92

Start P4

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 12.9%

Top-5 44%

Exp pts 5.65

Start P3

Driver ELO 1511

Track-type ELO 1510

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

16.9%

#12Ryan Blaney

16.4%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

35.6%

#12Ryan Blaney

31.3%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

54.2%

#12Ryan Blaney

46.2%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

69.1%

#12Ryan Blaney

67.9%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Value

#12Ryan Blaney

5.70

#11Denny Hamlin

5.68

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#51Cody Ware

36.2%

#3Austin Dillon

14.4%

#7Daniel Suarez

— SUB

#10Ty Dillon

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

Unlock with subscription

Practice Risers

#12Ryan Blaney

Win • +0.46 (start P8)

#21Josh Berry

Top-10 • +0.38 (start P2)

#23Bubba Wallace

Boost • +0.37 (start P23)

#24William Byron

Top-5 • +0.36 (start P3)

#5Kyle Larson

Top-5 • +0.33 (start P9)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

Unlock with subscription

Track Sleepers

#6Brad Keselowski

Avg P11 • 6 starts (best P1)

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Avg P17 • 6 starts (best P7)

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P8	5.96	16.4%	31.3%	46%	68%	4.2%	1507	25.6	15 (6)	+0.46
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	5.92	16.9%	35.6%	54%	69%	3.9%	1514	30.1	10 (6)	+0.26
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	5.65	12.9%	28.4%	44%	67%	5.1%	1511	24.0	16 (6)	+0.36
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	5.00	8.9%	24.5%	40%	61%	4.3%	1512	30.1	11 (6)	+0.09
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P9	4.96	6.2%	20.3%	34%	58%	5.8%	1513	24.0	7 (5)	+0.33
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	40	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	5.96	16.4%	46%	68%	84%	96%	4.2%
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.92	16.9%	54%	69%	84%	96%	3.9%
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.65	12.9%	44%	67%	84%	95%	5.1%
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.00	8.9%	40%	61%	83%	96%	4.3%
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.96	6.2%	34%	58%	80%	94%	5.8%
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	40	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P8	5.96	1507	1507	25.6	+10.5	-2.5
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	5.92	1514	1513	30.1	+14.5	+7.7
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	5.65	1511	1510	24.0	+15.5	+2.0
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	5.00	1512	1511	30.1	+12.5	+1.0
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P9	4.96	1513	1512	24.0	+9.5	+2.2
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	40	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

31 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 36 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-08-23 22:38 • Practice blended