RACE 25 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

New Hampshire Motor SpeedwayDollar Tree 301

DateSunday, August 23, 2026

Track TypeShort Track

Field37 drivers

SHORT TRACK

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Updated 2026-08-18 11:12

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-08-18 11:12

Best by Expected Points · Win 16.8%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

Best Win odds: Chase Briscoe (24.4%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 16.8% • Top-5 54% • EP 5.62

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 69% • DNF 3.9%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Ryan Blaney

Win prob 12.1% • Started P13

Risk Flag

Cody Ware

DNF prob 27.9%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 82/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

82/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

Top-5 hit rate

50%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.53

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 16.8%

Top-5 54%

Exp pts 5.62

Start P4

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 24.4%

Top-5 47%

Exp pts 5.61

Start P2

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win 12.4%

Top-5 46%

Exp pts 5.19

Start P1

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

24.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

16.8%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

35.8%

#11Denny Hamlin

35.6%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

54.3%

#19Chase Briscoe

47.3%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

69.2%

#11Denny Hamlin

69.0%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

5.40

#19Chase Briscoe

5.34

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#51Cody Ware

27.9%

#Josh Bilicki

22.5%

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

#38Zane Smith

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

Unlock with subscription

Track Sleepers

#6Brad Keselowski

Avg P11 • 6 starts (best P1)

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Avg P17 • 6 starts (best P7)

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	5.62	16.8%	35.6%	54%	69%	3.9%	1514	30.1	10 (6)	—
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	5.61	24.4%	35.8%	47%	69%	4.8%	1515	30.1	13 (5)	—
3	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P1	5.19	12.4%	29.2%	46%	66%	5.4%	1516	25.6	12 (6)	—
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	4.90	9.1%	24.6%	40%	61%	4.4%	1512	30.1	11 (6)	—
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	4.89	10.1%	24.5%	39%	60%	5.4%	1511	24.0	16 (6)	—
6	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36		Josh Bilicki		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.62	16.8%	54%	69%	84%	96%	3.9%
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.61	24.4%	47%	69%	80%	95%	4.8%
3	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	5.19	12.4%	46%	66%	81%	95%	5.4%
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.90	9.1%	40%	61%	83%	96%	4.4%
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	4.89	10.1%	39%	60%	83%	95%	5.4%
6	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36		Josh Bilicki		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	5.62	1514	1513	30.1	+15.0	+7.7
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	5.61	1515	1515	30.1	+17.0	+5.8
3	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P1	5.19	1516	1515	25.6	+18.0	-0.5
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	4.90	1512	1511	30.1	+12.0	+1.0
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	4.89	1511	1510	24.0	+11.0	+2.0
6	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36		Josh Bilicki		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-08-18 11:12