RACE 24 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Richmond RacewayCook Out 400

DateSaturday, August 15, 2026

Track TypeShort Track

Field37 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Richmond Raceway Updated 2026-08-15 21:15 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-08-15 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 16.3%

Ryan Blaney • #12 Team Penske

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

Lowest DNF risk: Chase Briscoe (4.3%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Ryan Blaney

Win 16.3% • Top-5 45% • EP 5.76

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Ryan Blaney

Top-10 prob 70% • DNF 5.0%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Ty Gibbs

Win prob 8.9% • Started P4

Risk Flag

Cody Ware

DNF prob 39.5%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 91/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

91/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.57

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 16.3%

Top-5 45%

Exp pts 5.76

Start P1

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 12.2%

Top-5 45%

Exp pts 5.10

Start P2

Driver ELO 1511

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 8.3%

Top-5 40%

Exp pts 5.07

Start P5

Driver ELO 1511

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

16.3%

#11Denny Hamlin

12.6%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

30.7%

#19Chase Briscoe

28.7%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

45.1%

#12Ryan Blaney

45.1%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

70.2%

#24William Byron

66.3%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Best Value

#12Ryan Blaney

5.48

#19Chase Briscoe

4.88

#24William Byron

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#51Cody Ware

39.5%

#Josh Bilicki

28.0%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#34Todd Gilliland

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#2Austin Cindric

Boost • +0.35 (start P23)

#5Kyle Larson

Boost • +0.34 (start P30)

#71Michael McDowell

Boost • +0.29 (start P26)

#48Alex Bowman

Boost • +0.29 (start P25)

#12Ryan Blaney

Win • +0.26 (start P1)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#5Kyle Larson

Avg P9 • 9 starts (best P1)

#3Austin Dillon

Avg P11 • 10 starts (best P1)

#48Alex Bowman

Avg P12 • 10 starts (best P1)

#45Tyler Reddick

Avg P17 • 10 starts (best P3)

#17Chris Buescher

Avg P18 • 10 starts (best P1)

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	5.76	16.3%	30.7%	45%	70%	5.0%	1515	25.1	13 (10)	+0.26
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	5.10	12.2%	28.7%	45%	62%	4.3%	1511	29.9	16 (9)	+0.06
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.07	8.3%	24.1%	40%	66%	4.9%	1511	23.6	14 (10)	+0.03
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P14	5.01	12.6%	26.9%	41%	60%	5.7%	1512	29.9	6 (10)	+0.03
5	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P10	4.78	4.9%	19.6%	34%	60%	4.6%	1506	25.1	7 (10)	+0.16
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Josh Bilicki		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	5.76	16.3%	45%	70%	86%	95%	5.0%
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.10	12.2%	45%	62%	78%	96%	4.3%
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.07	8.3%	40%	66%	85%	95%	4.9%
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.01	12.6%	41%	60%	82%	94%	5.7%
5	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	4.78	4.9%	34%	60%	80%	95%	4.6%
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Josh Bilicki		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	5.76	1515	1514	25.1	+18.0	+0.2
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	5.10	1511	1511	29.9	+17.0	+4.8
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.07	1511	1509	23.6	+14.0	-2.5
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P14	5.01	1512	1512	29.9	+5.0	+5.2
5	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P10	4.78	1506	1506	25.1	+9.0	-1.0
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Josh Bilicki		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

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All 37 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-08-15 21:15 • Practice blended