RACE 23 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Iowa SpeedwayIowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol

DateSunday, August 9, 2026

Track TypeShort Track

Field36 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Iowa Speedway Updated 2026-08-09 21:26 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-08-09 21:26

Best by Expected Points · Win 13.7%

Ryan Blaney • #12 Team Penske

Why: front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Brad Keselowski (18.1%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Ryan Blaney

Win 13.7% • Top-5 42% • EP 5.53

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Joey Logano

Top-10 prob 68% • DNF 4.5%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Denny Hamlin

Win prob 6.0% • Started P29

Risk Flag

Cody Ware

DNF prob 22.0%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 91/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

91/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.57

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 13.7%

Top-5 42%

Exp pts 5.53

Start P1

Driver ELO 1500

Track-type ELO 1508

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win 12.7%

Top-5 43%

Exp pts 5.48

Start P3

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

#6 RFK Racing

Brad Keselowski

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#6 RFK Racing

Brad Keselowski

Win 18.1%

Top-5 43%

Exp pts 5.32

Start P4

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#6Brad Keselowski

18.1%

#12Ryan Blaney

13.7%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#6Brad Keselowski

30.8%

#22Joey Logano

27.8%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#6Brad Keselowski

43.5%

#22Joey Logano

42.9%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#22Joey Logano

68.2%

#6Brad Keselowski

65.5%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Value

#22Joey Logano

5.23

#12Ryan Blaney

5.17

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#51Cody Ware

22.0%

#60Ryan Preece

19.9%

#21Josh Berry

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#7Daniel Suarez

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

Unlock with subscription

Practice Risers

#12Ryan Blaney

Win • +0.41 (start P1)

#20Christopher Bell

Top-5 • +0.38 (start P22)

#34Todd Gilliland

Boost • +0.33 (start P17)

#1Ross Chastain

Top-10 • +0.32 (start P9)

#21Josh Berry

Boost • +0.30 (start P13)

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	5.53	13.7%	27.8%	42%	64%	6.6%	1500	24.9	2 (2)	+0.41
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P3	5.48	12.7%	27.8%	43%	68%	4.5%	1515	24.9	8 (2)	+0.23
3	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P4	5.32	18.1%	30.8%	43%	65%	4.4%	1513	24.9	6 (2)	-0.03
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	4.48	5.9%	16.9%	28%	53%	6.0%	1509	29.4	23 (2)	+0.23
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P22	4.17	2.2%	12.3%	22%	42%	6.2%	1515	29.4	10 (2)	+0.38
6	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	5.53	13.7%	42%	64%	82%	93%	6.6%
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	5.48	12.7%	43%	68%	83%	95%	4.5%
3	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	5.32	18.1%	43%	65%	84%	96%	4.4%
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.48	5.9%	28%	53%	75%	94%	6.0%
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.17	2.2%	22%	42%	73%	94%	6.2%
6	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	5.53	1500	1508	24.9	+17.5	+5.3
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P3	5.48	1515	1515	24.9	+15.5	+0.2
3	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P4	5.32	1513	1511	24.9	+14.5	+11.8
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	4.48	1509	1513	29.4	+12.5	+1.0
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P22	4.17	1515	1502	29.4	-3.5	-0.2
6	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-08-09 21:26 • Practice blended