RACE 23 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • PRE-QUALIFYING

Iowa SpeedwayIowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol

DateSunday, August 9, 2026

Track TypeShort Track

Field39 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Iowa Speedway Updated 2026-07-27 10:00

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-07-27 10:00

Best by Expected Points · Win 15.4%

Joey Logano • #22 Team Penske

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

Lowest DNF risk: Bubba Wallace (3.7%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Joey Logano

Win 15.4% • Top-5 45% • EP 5.35

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Joey Logano

Top-10 prob 68% • DNF 5.2%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Bubba Wallace

Win prob 8.2% • Started P7

Risk Flag

Casey Mears

DNF prob 27.2%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 84/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

84/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

Top-5 hit rate

50%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.56

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win 15.4%

Top-5 45%

Exp pts 5.35

Start P1

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 10.4%

Top-5 48%

Exp pts 5.12

Start P2

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#6 RFK Racing

Brad Keselowski

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#6 RFK Racing

Brad Keselowski

Win 14.4%

Top-5 39%

Exp pts 5.08

Start P8

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P8).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#22Joey Logano

15.4%

#6Brad Keselowski

14.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#22Joey Logano

30.2%

#11Denny Hamlin

29.0%

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

47.6%

#22Joey Logano

45.1%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#22Joey Logano

68.3%

#11Denny Hamlin

66.8%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Value

#22Joey Logano

5.07

#6Brad Keselowski

4.84

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#62Casey Mears

27.2%

#21Josh Berry

22.5%

#78Daniel Dye

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

05 Full Projections

39 drivers • top 5 free39 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	5.35	15.4%	30.2%	45%	68%	5.2%	1515	24.9	8 (2)	—
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	5.12	10.4%	29.0%	48%	67%	7.5%	1513	29.4	24 (2)	—
3	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	5.08	14.4%	27.0%	39%	63%	4.8%	1513	24.9	6 (2)	—
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.99	9.3%	26.0%	43%	64%	4.9%	1513	29.4	15 (2)	—
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	4.87	9.5%	23.8%	38%	63%	6.6%	1500	24.9	2 (2)	—
6	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	78	Daniel Dye	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	62	Casey Mears	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	5.35	15.4%	45%	68%	84%	95%	5.2%
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.12	10.4%	48%	67%	80%	93%	7.5%
3	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	5.08	14.4%	39%	63%	82%	95%	4.8%
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.99	9.3%	43%	64%	81%	95%	4.9%
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	4.87	9.5%	38%	63%	82%	93%	6.6%
6	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	78	Daniel Dye	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	62	Casey Mears	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	5.35	1515	1515	24.9	—	+0.2
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	5.12	1513	1514	29.4	—	-3.8
3	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	5.08	1513	1511	24.9	—	+11.8
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.99	1513	1513	29.4	—	-2.2
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	4.87	1500	1508	24.9	—	+5.3
6	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	78	Daniel Dye	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	62	Casey Mears	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-07-27 10:00