RACE 22 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Indianapolis Motor SpeedwayBrickyard 400

DateSunday, July 26, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field39 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Indianapolis Motor Speedway Updated 2026-07-26 21:15 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-07-26 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 12.3%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

Top by every metric this week — Expected Points, Win odds, and DNF avoidance. See full picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 12.3% • Top-5 38% • EP 4.84

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Tyler Reddick

Top-10 prob 61% • DNF 10.4%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Corey Heim

Win prob 8.4% • Started P7

Risk Flag

Casey Mears

DNF prob 25.1%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

35%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.49

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 12.3%

Top-5 38%

Exp pts 4.84

Start P5

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1508

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 10.1%

Top-5 33%

Exp pts 4.65

Start P3

Driver ELO 1497

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P3), strong organization rating.

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 3.9%

Top-5 38%

Exp pts 4.38

Start P10

Driver ELO 1507

Track-type ELO 1494

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P10), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

12.3%

#45Tyler Reddick

10.1%

#67Corey Heim

— SUB

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

25.4%

#45Tyler Reddick

21.6%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#67Corey Heim

— SUB

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

38.4%

#5Kyle Larson

37.9%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#67Corey Heim

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

61.3%

#11Denny Hamlin

60.7%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

4.37

#45Tyler Reddick

4.16

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#62Casey Mears

25.1%

#43Erik Jones

24.5%

#78Daniel Dye

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

Unlock with subscription

Practice Risers

#5Kyle Larson

Top-5 • +0.30 (start P10)

#54Ty Gibbs

Top-5 • +0.29 (start P4)

#17Chris Buescher

Boost • +0.27 (start P15)

#24William Byron

Boost • +0.25 (start P21)

#11Denny Hamlin

Win • +0.20 (start P5)

05 Full Projections

39 drivers • top 5 free39 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	4.84	12.3%	25.4%	38%	61%	9.8%	1515	28.8	21 (3)	+0.20
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P3	4.65	10.1%	21.6%	33%	61%	10.4%	1497	23.7	13 (3)	+0.04
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P10	4.38	3.9%	20.9%	38%	55%	13.2%	1507	24.2	2 (2)	+0.30
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P11	4.00	3.6%	16.6%	30%	48%	13.0%	1515	28.8	21 (2)	-0.16
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	3.95	6.7%	16.0%	25%	50%	15.3%	1514	28.8	22 (2)	+0.29
6	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	78	Daniel Dye	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	62	Casey Mears	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.84	12.3%	38%	61%	79%	90%	9.8%
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	4.65	10.1%	33%	61%	78%	90%	10.4%
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.38	3.9%	38%	55%	75%	87%	13.2%
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.00	3.6%	30%	48%	74%	87%	13.0%
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	3.95	6.7%	25%	50%	67%	85%	15.3%
6	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	78	Daniel Dye	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	62	Casey Mears	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	4.84	1515	1508	28.8	+15.0	+3.7
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P3	4.65	1497	1511	23.7	+17.0	-4.2
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P10	4.38	1507	1494	24.2	+10.0	-11.3
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P11	4.00	1515	1492	28.8	+9.0	-3.8
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	3.95	1514	1513	28.8	+16.0	-3.5
6	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	78	Daniel Dye	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	62	Casey Mears	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

34 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Full board.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-07-26 21:15 • Practice blended