RACE 21 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • PRE-QUALIFYING

North Wilkesboro SpeedwayWindow World 400

DateSunday, July 19, 2026

Track TypeShort Track

Field38 drivers

SHORT TRACK

North Wilkesboro Speedway Updated 2026-07-13 10:00

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-07-13 10:00

Best by Expected Points · Win 15.2%

Ryan Blaney • #12 Team Penske

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

Lowest DNF risk: Joey Logano (4.1%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Ryan Blaney

Win 15.2% • Top-5 50% • EP 5.26

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Ty Gibbs

Top-10 prob 69% • DNF 5.8%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Ryan Preece

Win prob 12.9% • Started P8

Risk Flag

Chad Finchum

DNF prob 38.5%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 85/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

85/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

52%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.56

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 15.2%

Top-5 50%

Exp pts 5.26

Start P2

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win 12.6%

Top-5 39%

Exp pts 5.13

Start P1

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 8.2%

Top-5 41%

Exp pts 4.85

Start P10

Driver ELO 1509

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P10), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

15.2%

#60Ryan Preece

12.9%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

32.4%

#54Ty Gibbs

25.9%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#60Ryan Preece

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

49.6%

#11Denny Hamlin

40.9%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#54Ty Gibbs

69.2%

#12Ryan Blaney

66.4%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Value

#12Ryan Blaney

5.02

#54Ty Gibbs

4.83

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#Chad Finchum

38.5%

#48Alex Bowman

21.7%

#97Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

#34Todd Gilliland

— SUB

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	5.26	15.2%	32.4%	50%	66%	4.6%	1516	24.4	—	—
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	5.13	12.6%	25.9%	39%	69%	5.8%	1514	27.5	—	—
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.85	8.2%	24.6%	41%	62%	6.5%	1509	27.5	—	—
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.76	9.0%	21.9%	35%	64%	5.8%	1494	27.5	—	—
5	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	4.39	3.6%	18.9%	34%	54%	4.2%	1498	23.7	—	—
6	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		B.J. McLeod		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	5.26	15.2%	50%	66%	76%	95%	4.6%
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.13	12.6%	39%	69%	82%	94%	5.8%
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.85	8.2%	41%	62%	81%	93%	6.5%
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.76	9.0%	35%	64%	78%	94%	5.8%
5	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	4.39	3.6%	34%	54%	78%	96%	4.2%
6	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		B.J. McLeod		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	5.26	1516	1514	24.4	—	+7.2
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	5.13	1514	1515	27.5	—	-2.3
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.85	1509	1509	27.5	—	-5.2
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	4.76	1494	1513	27.5	—	-5.3
5	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	4.39	1498	1509	23.7	—	-3.5
6	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		B.J. McLeod		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-07-13 10:00