RACE 21 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

North Wilkesboro SpeedwayWindow World 400

DateSunday, July 19, 2026

Track TypeShort Track

Field38 drivers

SHORT TRACK

North Wilkesboro Speedway Updated 2026-07-19 21:15 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-07-19 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 17.4%

Ryan Blaney • #12 Team Penske

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

Lowest DNF risk: Joey Logano (4.2%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Ryan Blaney

Win 17.4% • Top-5 49% • EP 5.46

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Ty Gibbs

Top-10 prob 69% • DNF 5.6%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Carson Hocevar

Win prob 10.9% • Started P4

Risk Flag

B.J. McLeod

DNF prob 41.1%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 91/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

91/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.57

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 17.4%

Top-5 49%

Exp pts 5.46

Start P1

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win 10.2%

Top-5 39%

Exp pts 5.32

Start P2

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 11.8%

Top-5 42%

Exp pts 5.25

Start P7

Driver ELO 1509

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P7), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

17.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

11.8%

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

33.2%

#11Denny Hamlin

26.7%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

48.9%

#11Denny Hamlin

41.6%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#54Ty Gibbs

68.5%

#12Ryan Blaney

66.2%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

Best Value

#12Ryan Blaney

5.20

#54Ty Gibbs

5.03

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#B.J. McLeod

41.1%

#Chad Finchum

38.5%

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

#35Riley Herbst

— SUB

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

Unlock with subscription

Practice Risers

#20Christopher Bell

Top-5 • +0.43 (start P3)

#48Alex Bowman

Boost • +0.34 (start P25)

#35Riley Herbst

Boost • +0.33 (start P34)

#22Joey Logano

Top-5 • +0.32 (start P11)

#11Denny Hamlin

Top-5 • +0.30 (start P7)

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	5.46	17.4%	33.2%	49%	66%	4.7%	1516	24.4	—	+0.20
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	5.32	10.2%	24.5%	39%	69%	5.6%	1514	27.5	—	+0.26
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	5.25	11.8%	26.7%	42%	64%	6.0%	1509	27.5	—	+0.30
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	5.01	9.3%	18.6%	28%	58%	5.4%	1515	27.5	—	+0.43
5	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P11	4.60	4.8%	17.2%	30%	49%	4.2%	1509	24.4	—	+0.32
6	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		B.J. McLeod		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	5.46	17.4%	49%	66%	76%	95%	4.7%
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.32	10.2%	39%	69%	82%	94%	5.6%
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.25	11.8%	42%	64%	81%	94%	6.0%
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.01	9.3%	28%	58%	79%	95%	5.4%
5	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	4.60	4.8%	30%	49%	79%	96%	4.2%
6	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		B.J. McLeod		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	5.46	1516	1514	24.4	+18.5	+7.2
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	5.32	1514	1515	27.5	+17.5	-2.3
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	5.25	1509	1509	27.5	+12.5	-5.2
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	5.01	1515	1498	27.5	+16.5	+4.7
5	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P11	4.60	1509	1511	24.4	+8.5	-2.0
6	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		B.J. McLeod		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-07-19 21:15 • Practice blended