RACE 20 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

EchoPark SpeedwayQuaker State 400 Available at Walmart

DateSunday, July 12, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field38 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

EchoPark Speedway Updated 2026-07-11 21:15

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-07-11 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 6.8%

Chase Elliott • #9 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: top-10 starting spot (P7), strong organization rating, avg P12 at this track.

Best Win odds: Ryan Blaney (9.2%) · Lowest DNF risk: Kyle Larson (8.8%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Chase Elliott

Win 6.8% • Top-5 32% • EP 4.36

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Chase Elliott

Top-10 prob 57% • DNF 11.3%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Joey Logano

Win prob 7.3% • Started P2

Risk Flag

Chad Finchum

DNF prob 34.8%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 74/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

74/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

42%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 6.8%

Top-5 32%

Exp pts 4.36

Start P7

Driver ELO 1508

Track-type ELO 1508

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P7), strong organization rating, avg P12 at this track.

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 9.2%

Top-5 35%

Exp pts 4.32

Start P1

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 5.4%

Top-5 30%

Exp pts 4.17

Start P3

Driver ELO 1495

Track-type ELO 1493

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P3), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

9.2%

#11Denny Hamlin

8.5%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

22.0%

#9Chase Elliott

19.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

34.7%

#9Chase Elliott

31.9%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#9Chase Elliott

56.7%

#5Kyle Larson

50.4%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#7Daniel Suarez

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Value

#9Chase Elliott

3.86

#5Kyle Larson

3.80

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#7Daniel Suarez

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#Chad Finchum

34.8%

#24William Byron

19.2%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#21Josh Berry

— SUB

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

Unlock with subscription

Track Sleepers

#16A.J. Allmendinger

Avg P11 • 5 starts (best P3)

#1Ross Chastain

Avg P14 • 11 starts (best P2)

#6Brad Keselowski

Avg P16 • 12 starts (best P2)

#38Zane Smith

Avg P16 • 5 starts (best P7)

#71Michael McDowell

Avg P18 • 12 starts (best P4)

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P7	4.36	6.8%	19.4%	32%	57%	11.3%	1508	24.5	12 (11)	—
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	4.32	9.2%	22.0%	35%	50%	13.1%	1513	24.2	9 (12)	—
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	4.17	5.4%	17.9%	30%	50%	8.8%	1495	24.5	23 (11)	—
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P28	4.03	8.5%	19.2%	30%	45%	15.5%	1515	27.5	16 (12)	—
5	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	P5	3.75	5.2%	11.5%	18%	48%	13.3%	1507	23.7	17 (12)	—
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34		B.J. McLeod		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	4.36	6.8%	32%	57%	75%	89%	11.3%
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	4.32	9.2%	35%	50%	74%	87%	13.1%
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.17	5.4%	30%	50%	74%	91%	8.8%
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.03	8.5%	30%	45%	72%	84%	15.5%
5	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	3.75	5.2%	18%	48%	70%	87%	13.3%
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34		B.J. McLeod		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P7	4.36	1508	1508	24.5	+12.5	-0.3
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	4.32	1513	1512	24.2	+18.5	+6.2
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	4.17	1495	1493	24.5	+16.5	-10.0
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P28	4.03	1515	1514	27.5	-8.5	+1.3
5	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	P5	3.75	1507	1506	23.7	+14.5	+0.0
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34		B.J. McLeod		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

33 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 38 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-07-11 21:15