RACE 19 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Chicagoland SpeedwayNCS Race at Chicagoland

DateSunday, July 5, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field38 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Chicagoland Speedway Updated 2026-07-05 21:15 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-07-05 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 17.2%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: Daniel Suarez (9.9%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 17.2% • Top-5 44% • EP 5.09

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 61% • DNF 13.6%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Brad Keselowski

Win prob 11.3% • Started P4

Risk Flag

John Hunter Nemechek

DNF prob 30.5%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 17.2%

Top-5 44%

Exp pts 5.09

Start P1

Driver ELO 1498

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win 13.5%

Top-5 38%

Exp pts 4.84

Start P5

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1510

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5).

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 15.8%

Top-5 40%

Exp pts 4.72

Start P2

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

17.2%

#5Kyle Larson

15.8%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

30.4%

#5Kyle Larson

27.9%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

43.6%

#5Kyle Larson

40.0%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

60.8%

#54Ty Gibbs

56.6%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

4.39

#54Ty Gibbs

4.26

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#42John Hunter Nemechek

30.5%

#6Brad Keselowski

22.9%

#J.J. Yeley

— SUB

#43Erik Jones

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

Unlock with subscription

Practice Risers

#45Tyler Reddick

Top-10 • +0.41 (start P13)

#2Austin Cindric

Boost • +0.38 (start P23)

#Corey Heim

Boost • +0.37 (start P28)

#12Ryan Blaney

Boost • +0.36 (start P14)

#24William Byron

Top-10 • +0.34 (start P10)

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.09	17.2%	30.4%	44%	61%	13.6%	1498	26.6	—	+0.27
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	4.84	13.5%	26.0%	38%	57%	11.9%	1514	26.6	—	+0.21
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	4.72	15.8%	27.9%	40%	56%	15.8%	1513	24.8	—	+0.16
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	4.30	7.7%	19.8%	32%	53%	13.4%	1514	26.6	—	+0.15
5	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P3	4.15	8.5%	17.1%	26%	48%	10.2%	1502	25.1	—	+0.22
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		J.J. Yeley		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.09	17.2%	44%	61%	75%	86%	13.6%
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.84	13.5%	38%	57%	75%	88%	11.9%
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.72	15.8%	40%	56%	72%	84%	15.8%
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.30	7.7%	32%	53%	73%	87%	13.4%
5	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	4.15	8.5%	26%	48%	72%	90%	10.2%
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		J.J. Yeley		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.09	1498	1515	26.6	+18.5	+1.3
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	4.84	1514	1510	26.6	+14.5	-11.5
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	4.72	1513	1513	24.8	+17.5	-4.3
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	4.30	1514	1499	26.6	+13.5	-8.3
5	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P3	4.15	1502	1510	25.1	+16.5	-5.2
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		J.J. Yeley		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

33 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-07-05 21:15 • Practice blended