RACE 18 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Sonoma RacewayToyota/Save Mart 350

DateSunday, June 28, 2026

Track TypeRoad Course

Field36 drivers

ROAD COURSE

Sonoma Raceway Updated 2026-06-28 21:18 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-06-28 21:18

Best by Expected Points · Win 9.2%

Kyle Larson • #5 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

Best Win odds: Ty Gibbs (9.4%) · Lowest DNF risk: Chris Buescher (6.3%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Kyle Larson

Win 9.2% • Top-5 40% • EP 5.00

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Kyle Larson

Top-10 prob 65% • DNF 6.8%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Shane van Gisbergen

Win prob 9.3% • Started P6

Risk Flag

Ryan Preece

DNF prob 18.2%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 76/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L10 of road course

76/100

HIGH

Road courses introduce more variance. Specialists outperform the field; cautions tend to cluster late.

Win pick hit rate

30%

Top-5 hit rate

46%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 9.2%

Top-5 40%

Exp pts 5.00

Start P3

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

#71 Spire Motorsports

Michael McDowell

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#71 Spire Motorsports

Michael McDowell

Win 5.7%

Top-5 30%

Exp pts 4.26

Start P4

Driver ELO 1510

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P4), strong organization rating, avg P9 at this track.

#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win 9.4%

Top-5 31%

Exp pts 4.25

Start P1

Driver ELO 1506

Track-type ELO 1506

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P1), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#54Ty Gibbs

9.4%

#97Shane van Gisbergen

9.3%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

24.8%

#54Ty Gibbs

20.3%

#97Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

40.5%

#54Ty Gibbs

31.2%

#97Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

65.0%

#71Michael McDowell

55.7%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Value

#5Kyle Larson

4.66

#71Michael McDowell

3.98

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#60Ryan Preece

18.2%

#23Bubba Wallace

17.4%

#33Austin Hill

— SUB

#38Zane Smith

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#5Kyle Larson

Win • +0.31 (start P3)

#19Chase Briscoe

Top-5 • +0.28 (start P7)

#11Denny Hamlin

Top-10 • +0.23 (start P9)

#45Tyler Reddick

Top-5 • +0.22 (start P11)

#54Ty Gibbs

Top-5 • +0.19 (start P1)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#22Joey Logano

Avg P11 • 5 starts (best P3)

#7Daniel Suarez

Avg P13 • 5 starts (best P1)

#6Brad Keselowski

Avg P13 • 5 starts (best P10)

#48Alex Bowman

Avg P15 • 5 starts (best P9)

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	5.00	9.2%	24.8%	40%	65%	6.8%	1514	23.8	12 (5)	+0.31
2	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	P4	4.26	5.7%	17.9%	30%	56%	6.6%	1510	23.6	9 (5)	+0.15
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	4.25	9.4%	20.3%	31%	49%	8.0%	1506	26.6	21 (3)	+0.19
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	4.14	7.5%	19.1%	31%	45%	7.0%	1506	26.6	19 (5)	+0.28
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P11	4.10	4.2%	17.1%	30%	46%	7.1%	1501	24.2	20 (5)	+0.22
6	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.00	9.2%	40%	65%	80%	93%	6.8%
2	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	4.26	5.7%	30%	56%	70%	93%	6.6%
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.25	9.4%	31%	49%	70%	92%	8.0%
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.14	7.5%	31%	45%	70%	93%	7.0%
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	4.10	4.2%	30%	46%	74%	93%	7.1%
6	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	5.00	1514	1513	23.8	+15.5	-2.5
2	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	P4	4.26	1510	1509	23.6	+14.5	-0.2
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	4.25	1506	1506	26.6	+17.5	-3.5
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	4.14	1506	1504	26.6	+11.5	-5.3
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P11	4.10	1501	1499	24.2	+7.5	+1.2
6	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-06-28 21:18 • Practice blended