RACE 17 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Naval Base CoronadoAnduril 250

DateSunday, June 21, 2026

Track TypeRoad Course

Field39 drivers

ROAD COURSE

Naval Base Coronado Updated 2026-06-21 21:15

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-06-21 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 17.8%

Shane van Gisbergen • #97 Trackhouse Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1).

Lowest DNF risk: Chase Briscoe (6.7%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Shane van Gisbergen

Win 17.8% • Top-5 33% • EP 4.37

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Ryan Blaney

Top-10 prob 50% • DNF 7.7%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Ryan Preece

Win prob 8.3% • Started P7

Risk Flag

Cody Ware

DNF prob 30.6%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 76/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L10 of road course

76/100

HIGH

Road courses introduce more variance. Specialists outperform the field; cautions tend to cluster late.

Win pick hit rate

30%

Top-5 hit rate

46%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#97 Trackhouse Racing

Shane van Gisbergen

Win 17.8%

Top-5 33%

Exp pts 4.37

Start P1

Driver ELO 1496

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1).

#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win 5.8%

Top-5 30%

Exp pts 4.16

Start P11

Driver ELO 1510

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, strong organization rating.

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 5.6%

Top-5 24%

Exp pts 3.89

Start P3

Driver ELO 1509

Track-type ELO 1508

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P3), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#97Shane van Gisbergen

17.8%

#60Ryan Preece

8.3%

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#97Shane van Gisbergen

25.5%

#54Ty Gibbs

18.1%

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#97Shane van Gisbergen

33.2%

#54Ty Gibbs

30.4%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#54Ty Gibbs

50.8%

#97Shane van Gisbergen

50.1%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Value

#54Ty Gibbs

3.77

#12Ryan Blaney

3.59

#97Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#51Cody Ware

30.6%

#97Shane van Gisbergen

17.9%

#3Austin Dillon

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

#42John Hunter Nemechek

— SUB

05 Full Projections

39 drivers • top 5 free39 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P1	4.37	17.8%	25.5%	33%	50%	17.9%	1496	19.9	—	—
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P11	4.16	5.8%	18.1%	30%	51%	9.3%	1510	27.1	—	—
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P3	3.89	5.6%	14.8%	24%	50%	7.7%	1509	23.9	—	—
4	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	P9	3.85	7.4%	15.2%	23%	48%	9.5%	1506	23.4	—	—
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P17	3.74	4.9%	15.0%	25%	41%	8.1%	1515	23.8	—	—
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30		Kevin Magnussen		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Jimmie Johnson		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	4.37	17.8%	33%	50%	67%	82%	17.9%
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.16	5.8%	30%	51%	73%	91%	9.3%
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	3.89	5.6%	24%	50%	66%	92%	7.7%
4	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	3.85	7.4%	23%	48%	65%	90%	9.5%
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	3.74	4.9%	25%	41%	68%	92%	8.1%
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30		Kevin Magnussen		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Jimmie Johnson		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P1	4.37	1496	1514	19.9	+19.0	+2.2
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P11	4.16	1510	1513	27.1	+9.0	-1.7
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P3	3.89	1509	1508	23.9	+17.0	-6.5
4	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	P9	3.85	1506	1513	23.4	+11.0	-5.0
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P17	3.74	1515	1512	23.8	+3.0	+2.7
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30		Kevin Magnussen		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Jimmie Johnson		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-06-21 21:15