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This Week / Race 16 / 2026 / Pocono Raceway
RACE 16 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES

Pocono RacewayGreat American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA

DateSunday, June 14, 2026
Track TypeIntermediate
Field1 drivers
Modelv2 / xgb
Generated2026-03-17 09:09
INTERMEDIATE
Pocono Raceway Updated 2026-03-17 09:09

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 09:09
#1
Model Pick • Win 8.0%

• #

Highest expected points (3.02) with model rank #1.
Win Profile
Win 8.0% • Top-5 9% • EP 3.02
Safest Play
Top-10 prob 26% • DNF 23.0%
◦ Subscriber
Upside Driver
Win prob 8.0% • Started P20
◦ Subscriber
Biggest Mover
— — — — —
+/- ranks Mon → Now
◦ Subscriber
Risk Flag
DNF prob 23.0%
Race Confidence
HIGH • 72/100
Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate
72/100
HIGH
Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.
Win pick hit rate
25%
Top-5 hit rate
43%
Avg Spearman ρ
0.47

03 Forecast Movement

Mon → Practice → Final
Forecast movement coming soon How the model changed as practice and qualifying came in. This module activates once we capture prediction snapshots through the race week — historical predictions remain immutable, so we don't fabricate movement we didn't record.

04 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP
#
1
Win 8.0%
Top-5 9%
Exp pts 3.02
Start P20
Driver ELO 1500
Track-type ELO 1500
Why this pick Highest expected points (3.02) with model rank #1.

05 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber
Best Win Picks
#
8.0%
Best Top-3 Picks
#
12.4%
Best Top-5 Picks
#
16.8%
Best Top-10 Picks
#
25.8%
Best Value
#
2.32
Highest DNF Risk
#
23.0%

07 DFS Lens

Subscriber
Subscriber module

DFS Lens

Salary, projected fantasy points, value, floor / ceiling, and place-differential tags for cash and GPP builds.

Get the full board

06 Full Projections

1 drivers • top 5 free
Column key — what these meantap to open
Identity
Rank
Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#
Car number.
Q
Qualifying / starting position.
Model output
EP
Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%
Probability of winning the race.
T5%
Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%
Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%
Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%
Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).
EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.
Ratings & features
Drv ELO
Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO
Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org
Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ
Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ
Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.
Rank # Driver Team Q EP Win% T5% T10% DNF%
1 P20 3.02 8.0% 9% 9% 23.0%
Rank # Driver Team EP Win% T5% T10% T20% Made% DNF%
1 3.02 8.0% 9% 9% 32% 19% 23.0%
Rank # Driver Team Q EP Drv ELO TT ELO Org QualΔ SFΔ
1 P20 3.02 1500 1500 21.0 +0.0 +0.0
0 more drivers behind the paywall.
Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.
Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet
Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 09:09