RACE 16 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Pocono RacewayGreat American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA

DateSunday, June 14, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field38 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Pocono Raceway Updated 2026-06-14 21:15 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-06-14 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 19.3%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

Lowest DNF risk: Ty Gibbs (8.6%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 19.3% • Top-5 51% • EP 5.43

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 68% • DNF 10.5%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Daniel Suarez

Win prob 8.6% • Started P3

Risk Flag

Erik Jones

DNF prob 23.8%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 19.3%

Top-5 51%

Exp pts 5.43

Start P1

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 15.9%

Top-5 44%

Exp pts 4.97

Start P2

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win 7.4%

Top-5 39%

Exp pts 4.65

Start P4

Driver ELO 1500

Track-type ELO 1499

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P4), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

19.3%

#5Kyle Larson

15.9%

#7Daniel Suarez

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

35.2%

#5Kyle Larson

30.2%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

51.1%

#5Kyle Larson

44.4%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

67.6%

#5Kyle Larson

61.2%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

4.86

#5Kyle Larson

4.29

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#43Erik Jones

23.8%

#33Austin Hill

18.5%

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#5Kyle Larson

Win • +0.19 (start P2)

#24William Byron

Top-10 • +0.18 (start P9)

#43Erik Jones

Boost • +0.15 (start P7)

#42John Hunter Nemechek

Boost • +0.14 (start P8)

#19Chase Briscoe

Top-5 • +0.11 (start P5)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

Unlock with subscription

Track Sleepers

#6Brad Keselowski

Avg P10 • 8 starts (best P3)

#48Alex Bowman

Avg P12 • 8 starts (best P1)

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.43	19.3%	35.2%	51%	68%	10.5%	1516	27.0	8 (8)	0.01
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	4.97	15.9%	30.2%	44%	61%	13.6%	1514	24.0	9 (6)	+0.19
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.65	7.4%	23.1%	39%	60%	8.6%	1500	27.0	16 (4)	-0.20
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	4.42	7.8%	19.2%	31%	57%	11.6%	1510	27.0	18 (6)	+0.11
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P22	4.14	2.5%	18.1%	34%	52%	11.6%	1496	27.0	16 (8)	-0.18
6	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	78	Daniel Dye	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	62	Casey Mears	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.43	19.3%	51%	68%	79%	90%	10.5%
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.97	15.9%	44%	61%	75%	86%	13.6%
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.65	7.4%	39%	60%	78%	91%	8.6%
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.42	7.8%	31%	57%	75%	88%	11.6%
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.14	2.5%	34%	52%	74%	88%	11.6%
6	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	78	Daniel Dye	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	62	Casey Mears	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.43	1516	1515	27.0	+18.5	+1.0
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	4.97	1514	1513	24.0	+17.5	-8.5
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.65	1500	1499	27.0	+15.5	-7.0
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	4.42	1510	1509	27.0	+14.5	-1.8
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P22	4.14	1496	1495	27.0	-2.5	-7.2
6	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	78	Daniel Dye	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	62	Casey Mears	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

33 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Full board.

All 38 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-06-14 21:15 • Practice blended