RACE 15 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Michigan International SpeedwayFireKeepers Casino 400

DateSunday, June 7, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field37 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Michigan International Speedway Updated 2026-06-07 09:06 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-06-07 09:06

Best by Expected Points · Win 17.1%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

Lowest DNF risk: Michael McDowell (9.3%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 17.1% • Top-5 55% • EP 5.57

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 70% • DNF 9.4%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Carson Hocevar

Win prob 6.9% • Started P2

Risk Flag

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

DNF prob 23.0%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 75/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

75/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 17.1%

Top-5 55%

Exp pts 5.57

Start P1

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 9.0%

Top-5 41%

Exp pts 4.74

Start P7

Driver ELO 1502

Track-type ELO 1501

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P7), strong organization rating, avg P11 at this track.

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 8.9%

Top-5 34%

Exp pts 4.45

Start P3

Driver ELO 1512

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

17.1%

#20Christopher Bell

9.7%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

36.0%

#5Kyle Larson

24.9%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

54.9%

#5Kyle Larson

40.7%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

70.2%

#5Kyle Larson

59.3%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

5.04

#5Kyle Larson

4.28

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

23.0%

#J.J. Yeley

19.0%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#97Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

Unlock with subscription

Practice Risers

#45Tyler Reddick

Top-5 • +0.22 (start P3)

#24William Byron

Top-10 • +0.19 (start P9)

#9Chase Elliott

Top-10 • +0.19 (start P6)

#11Denny Hamlin

Win • +0.16 (start P1)

#5Kyle Larson

Win • +0.14 (start P7)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

Unlock with subscription

Track Sleepers

#22Joey Logano

Avg P17 • 7 starts (best P4)

#60Ryan Preece

Avg P17 • 6 starts (best P9)

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.57	17.1%	36.0%	55%	70%	9.4%	1516	27.4	4 (7)	+0.16
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P7	4.74	9.0%	24.9%	41%	59%	9.8%	1502	24.4	11 (5)	+0.14
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P3	4.45	8.9%	21.6%	34%	54%	11.7%	1512	23.4	21 (7)	+0.22
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	4.38	9.7%	20.9%	32%	59%	16.2%	1515	27.4	19 (7)	+0.08
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.35	5.5%	18.6%	32%	58%	10.5%	1508	27.4	7 (4)	-0.30
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13		Daniel Suarez		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26		Austin Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30		A.J. Allmendinger		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		J.J. Yeley		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.57	17.1%	55%	70%	81%	91%	9.4%
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.74	9.0%	41%	59%	78%	90%	9.8%
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	4.45	8.9%	34%	54%	75%	88%	11.7%
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.38	9.7%	32%	59%	71%	84%	16.2%
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.35	5.5%	32%	58%	76%	89%	10.5%
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13		Daniel Suarez		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26		Austin Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30		A.J. Allmendinger		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		J.J. Yeley		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.57	1516	1515	27.4	+18.0	+1.2
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P7	4.74	1502	1501	24.4	+12.0	-9.3
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P3	4.45	1512	1512	23.4	+16.0	-1.5
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	4.38	1515	1514	27.4	+11.0	-3.8
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.35	1508	1507	27.4	+15.0	-3.8
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13		Daniel Suarez		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26		Austin Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30		A.J. Allmendinger		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		J.J. Yeley		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 37 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-06-07 09:06 • Practice blended