RACE 14 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Nashville SuperspeedwayCracker Barrel 400

DateSunday, May 31, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field38 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Nashville Superspeedway Updated 2026-05-31 21:15 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-05-31 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 19.2%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

Lowest DNF risk: Michael McDowell (9.9%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 19.2% • Top-5 46% • EP 5.44

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 61% • DNF 11.4%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

William Byron

Win prob 11.6% • Started P8

Risk Flag

Connor Zilisch

DNF prob 23.8%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 19.2%

Top-5 46%

Exp pts 5.44

Start P1

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 12.0%

Top-5 40%

Exp pts 5.08

Start P2

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 14.7%

Top-5 40%

Exp pts 5.04

Start P5

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

19.2%

#5Kyle Larson

14.7%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

32.7%

#5Kyle Larson

27.5%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

46.2%

#5Kyle Larson

40.3%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

61.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

61.1%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

4.82

#45Tyler Reddick

4.42

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#88Connor Zilisch

23.8%

#Corey Heim

18.2%

#Chad Finchum

— SUB

#Daniel Suarez

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

Unlock with subscription

Practice Risers

#1Ross Chastain

Boost • +0.37 (start P35)

#54Ty Gibbs

Top-5 • +0.34 (start P6)

#9Chase Elliott

Boost • +0.32 (start P29)

#45Tyler Reddick

Win • +0.30 (start P2)

#20Christopher Bell

Top-5 • +0.29 (start P4)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

Unlock with subscription

Track Sleepers

#1Ross Chastain

Avg P10 • 5 starts (best P1)

#A.J. Allmendinger

Avg P15 • 4 starts (best P10)

#43Erik Jones

Avg P16 • 5 starts (best P7)

#2Austin Cindric

Avg P17 • 4 starts (best P7)

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.44	19.2%	32.7%	46%	61%	11.4%	1514	26.9	9 (5)	+0.27
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P2	5.08	12.0%	25.9%	40%	61%	13.0%	1515	23.0	16 (5)	+0.30
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.04	14.7%	27.5%	40%	60%	14.1%	1513	25.2	5 (5)	+0.22
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.79	11.9%	24.9%	38%	61%	14.5%	1514	26.9	14 (5)	+0.29
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	4.56	4.6%	18.9%	33%	53%	11.0%	1513	26.9	23 (3)	+0.34
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14		Daniel Suarez		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26		A.J. Allmendinger		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28		Austin Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.44	19.2%	46%	61%	78%	89%	11.4%
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	5.08	12.0%	40%	61%	76%	87%	13.0%
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.04	14.7%	40%	60%	75%	86%	14.1%
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.79	11.9%	38%	61%	73%	85%	14.5%
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.56	4.6%	33%	53%	72%	89%	11.0%
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14		Daniel Suarez		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26		A.J. Allmendinger		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28		Austin Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.44	1514	1514	26.9	+18.5	+3.8
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P2	5.08	1515	1513	23.0	+17.5	-0.8
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.04	1513	1512	25.2	+14.5	-9.0
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.79	1514	1514	26.9	+15.5	-2.3
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	4.56	1513	1512	26.9	+13.5	-4.7
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14		Daniel Suarez		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26		A.J. Allmendinger		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28		Austin Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38		Chad Finchum		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

33 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 38 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-05-31 21:15 • Practice blended