RACE 13 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Charlotte Motor SpeedwayCoca-Cola 600

DateSunday, May 24, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field39 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Charlotte Motor Speedway Updated 2026-05-24 21:15 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-05-24 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 15.1%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Chase Briscoe (16.4%) · Lowest DNF risk: William Byron (10.0%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 15.1% • Top-5 45% • EP 4.97

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 60% • DNF 12.2%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Austin Cindric

Win prob 6.0% • Started P8

Risk Flag

Alex Bowman

DNF prob 21.4%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 75/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

75/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 15.1%

Top-5 45%

Exp pts 4.97

Start P11

Driver ELO 1507

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, strong organization rating.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 16.4%

Top-5 38%

Exp pts 4.70

Start P5

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1501

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 10.1%

Top-5 40%

Exp pts 4.54

Start P1

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

16.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

15.1%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

30.2%

#19Chase Briscoe

27.1%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

45.4%

#45Tyler Reddick

40.2%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

59.9%

#45Tyler Reddick

57.2%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

4.37

#19Chase Briscoe

3.98

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#48Alex Bowman

21.4%

#Timmy Hill

18.1%

#Katherine Legge

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#34Todd Gilliland

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#71Michael McDowell

Boost • +0.33 (start P4)

#43Erik Jones

Boost • +0.32 (start P21)

#38Zane Smith

Boost • +0.28 (start P19)

#2Austin Cindric

Boost • +0.28 (start P8)

#20Christopher Bell

Top-10 • +0.27 (start P17)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Avg P14 • 7 starts (best P4)

#3Austin Dillon

Avg P15 • 7 starts (best P6)

#22Joey Logano

Avg P15 • 7 starts (best P6)

#48Alex Bowman

Avg P16 • 7 starts (best P5)

#1Ross Chastain

Avg P17 • 6 starts (best P1)

05 Full Projections

39 drivers • top 5 free39 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P11	4.97	15.1%	30.2%	45%	60%	12.2%	1507	26.8	14 (7)	+0.21
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	4.70	16.4%	27.1%	38%	54%	15.2%	1515	26.8	15 (5)	+0.10
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	4.54	10.1%	25.2%	40%	57%	15.5%	1513	22.9	10 (7)	-0.07
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	4.18	3.2%	19.4%	35%	50%	14.4%	1514	26.8	19 (3)	+0.10
5	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P7	4.07	7.1%	15.7%	24%	48%	12.3%	1509	27.1	17 (7)	+0.17
6	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16		Daniel Suarez		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22		A.J. Allmendinger		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29		Austin Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Katherine Legge		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39		Timmy Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.97	15.1%	45%	60%	74%	88%	12.2%
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.70	16.4%	38%	54%	75%	85%	15.2%
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	4.54	10.1%	40%	57%	73%	84%	15.5%
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.18	3.2%	35%	50%	74%	86%	14.4%
5	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	4.07	7.1%	24%	48%	72%	88%	12.3%
6	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16		Daniel Suarez		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22		A.J. Allmendinger		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29		Austin Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Katherine Legge		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39		Timmy Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P11	4.97	1507	1514	26.8	+9.0	+2.5
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	4.70	1515	1501	26.8	+15.0	+5.8
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	4.54	1513	1513	22.9	+19.0	+0.2
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	4.18	1514	1493	26.8	+18.0	-8.0
5	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P7	4.07	1509	1513	27.1	+13.0	-2.2
6	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16		Daniel Suarez		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20		Corey Heim		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22		A.J. Allmendinger		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29		Austin Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Katherine Legge		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39		Timmy Hill		—	—	—	—	—	—	—

34 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-05-24 21:15 • Practice blended