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This Week / Race 12 / 2026 / Watkins Glen International
RACE 12 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES

Watkins Glen InternationalGo Bowling at The Glen

DateSunday, May 10, 2026
Track TypeRoad Course
Field38 drivers
Modelv2 / xgb
Generated2026-05-06 06:47
ROAD COURSE
Watkins Glen International Updated 2026-05-06 06:47

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-05-06 06:47
#1
Model Pick • Win 8.5%

Tyler Reddick • #45 23XI Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).
Win Profile
Tyler Reddick
Win 8.5% • Top-5 31% • EP 4.65
Safest Play
Tyler Reddick
Top-10 prob 62% • DNF 9.6%
◦ Subscriber
Upside Driver
Alex Bowman
Win prob 8.0% • Started P3
◦ Subscriber
Biggest Mover
— — — — —
+/- ranks Mon → Now
◦ Subscriber
Risk Flag
Cody Ware
DNF prob 18.1%
Race Confidence
HIGH • 79/100
Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L7 of road course
79/100
HIGH
Road courses introduce more variance. Specialists outperform the field; cautions tend to cluster late.
Win pick hit rate
43%
Top-5 hit rate
51%
Avg Spearman ρ
0.50

03 Forecast Movement

Mon → Practice → Final
Forecast movement coming soon How the model changed as practice and qualifying came in. This module activates once we capture prediction snapshots through the race week — historical predictions remain immutable, so we don't fabricate movement we didn't record.

04 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP
#45 23XI Racing
1
Tyler Reddick
Win 8.5%
Top-5 31%
Exp pts 4.65
Start P4
Driver ELO 1514
Track-type ELO 1514
Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).
#17 RFK Racing
2
Chris Buescher
Win 6.0%
Top-5 22%
Exp pts 4.19
Start P5
Driver ELO 1513
Track-type ELO 1500
Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.
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Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#20 Joe Gibbs Racing
3
Christopher Bell
Win 3.9%
Top-5 24%
Exp pts 4.01
Start P37
Driver ELO 1493
Track-type ELO 1513
Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.
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Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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05 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber
Best Win Picks
#45Tyler Reddick
8.5%
#48Alex Bowman
8.0%
+3 more ◦ subscriber
Best Top-3 Picks
#45Tyler Reddick
24.1%
#17Chris Buescher
16.9%
+3 more ◦ subscriber
Best Top-5 Picks
#45Tyler Reddick
39.7%
#20Christopher Bell
28.1%
+3 more ◦ subscriber
Best Top-10 Picks
#45Tyler Reddick
61.7%
#20Christopher Bell
52.6%
+3 more ◦ subscriber
Best Value
#45Tyler Reddick
4.20
#17Chris Buescher
3.96
+3 more ◦ subscriber
Highest DNF Risk
#51Cody Ware
18.1%
#66Chad Finchum
17.6%
+3 more ◦ subscriber
Track Sleepers
#22Joey Logano
Avg P13 • 5 starts (best P3)
#1Ross Chastain
Avg P13 • 5 starts (best P4)
+3 more ◦ subscriber

07 DFS Lens

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Subscriber module

DFS Lens

Salary, projected fantasy points, value, floor / ceiling, and place-differential tags for cash and GPP builds.

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06 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free
Column key — what these meantap to open
Identity
Rank
Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#
Car number.
Q
Qualifying / starting position.
Model output
EP
Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%
Probability of winning the race.
T5%
Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%
Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%
Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%
Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).
EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.
Ratings & features
Drv ELO
Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO
Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org
Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ
Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ
Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.
Rank # Driver Team Q EP Win% T5% T10% DNF%
1 45 Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing P4 4.65 8.5% 31% 22% 9.6%
2 17 Chris Buescher RFK Racing P5 4.19 6.0% 22% 24% 5.5%
3 20 Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing P37 4.01 3.9% 24% 24% 5.1%
4 12 Ryan Blaney Team Penske P12 3.92 4.9% 21% 20% 7.7%
5 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing P2 3.88 3.5% 23% 19% 8.2%
6 5 Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports P34 3.79 3.9% 23% 18% 7.6%
7 77 Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports P7 3.67 2.0% 17% 21% 7.4%
8 48 Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports P3 3.59 8.0% 17% 13% 15.2%
9 24 William Byron Hendrick Motorsports P8 3.48 2.7% 12% 22% 10.1%
10 7 Daniel Suarez Spire Motorsports P6 3.44 2.3% 10% 30% 9.9%
11 97 Shane van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing P16 3.44 6.7% 16% 17% 14.3%
12 6 Brad Keselowski RFK Racing P14 3.40 1.8% 9% 27% 8.5%
13 9 Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports P1 3.37 4.5% 14% 18% 13.0%
14 19 Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing P23 3.27 2.2% 19% 11% 7.3%
15 23 Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing P9 3.25 2.3% 16% 16% 11.6%
16 54 Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing P35 3.17 4.5% 12% 16% 9.1%
17 60 Ryan Preece RFK Racing P13 3.16 3.3% 6% 24% 10.0%
18 71 Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports P29 3.13 3.3% 9% 21% 11.5%
19 1 Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing P26 2.93 1.6% 15% 12% 14.5%
20 8 Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing P19 2.91 2.0% 10% 17% 9.3%
21 16 A.J. Allmendinger Kaulig Racing P24 2.88 2.3% 11% 15% 11.8%
22 35 Riley Herbst 23XI Racing P10 2.87 1.5% 11% 12% 12.2%
23 2 Austin Cindric Team Penske P17 2.69 1.3% 7% 14% 8.5%
24 22 Joey Logano Team Penske P38 2.47 1.9% 4% 16% 10.8%
25 88 Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing P15 2.37 1.1% 3% 10% 10.4%
26 43 Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club P11 2.32 1.1% 5% 9% 11.9%
27 3 Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing P18 2.24 1.0% 4% 8% 10.7%
28 42 John Hunter Nemechek Legacy Motor Club P21 2.10 0.9% 3% 7% 11.8%
29 67 Corey Heim 23XI Racing P30 2.10 1.0% 3% 7% 10.8%
30 38 Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports P22 2.09 0.9% 3% 8% 14.5%
31 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Hyak Motorsports P20 1.93 0.9% 2% 6% 12.5%
32 34 Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports P33 1.81 0.8% 3% 5% 9.9%
33 4 Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports P27 1.73 0.8% 2% 7% 11.4%
34 10 Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing P25 1.60 0.8% 2% 4% 10.5%
35 21 Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing P31 1.59 0.7% 1% 2% 11.3%
36 41 Cole Custer Haas Factory Team P36 1.48 1.1% 3% 2% 15.0%
37 51 Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing P28 1.16 0.8% 1% 2% 18.1%
38 66 Chad Finchum Garage 66 P32 1.09 0.7% 1% 1% 17.6%
Rank # Driver Team EP Win% T5% T10% T20% Made% DNF%
1 45 Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing 4.65 8.5% 31% 22% 11% 17% 9.6%
2 17 Chris Buescher RFK Racing 4.19 6.0% 22% 24% 22% 21% 5.5%
3 20 Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing 4.01 3.9% 24% 24% 14% 28% 5.1%
4 12 Ryan Blaney Team Penske 3.92 4.9% 21% 20% 25% 21% 7.7%
5 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing 3.88 3.5% 23% 19% 26% 20% 8.2%
6 5 Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports 3.79 3.9% 23% 18% 21% 26% 7.6%
7 77 Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports 3.67 2.0% 17% 21% 36% 16% 7.4%
8 48 Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports 3.59 8.0% 17% 13% 23% 23% 15.2%
9 24 William Byron Hendrick Motorsports 3.48 2.7% 12% 22% 37% 16% 10.1%
10 7 Daniel Suarez Spire Motorsports 3.44 2.3% 10% 30% 25% 22% 9.9%
11 97 Shane van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing 3.44 6.7% 16% 17% 16% 29% 14.3%
12 6 Brad Keselowski RFK Racing 3.40 1.8% 9% 27% 35% 18% 8.5%
13 9 Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports 3.37 4.5% 14% 18% 28% 23% 13.0%
14 19 Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing 3.27 2.2% 19% 11% 28% 33% 7.3%
15 23 Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing 3.25 2.3% 16% 16% 28% 26% 11.6%
16 54 Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing 3.17 4.5% 12% 16% 23% 34% 9.1%
17 60 Ryan Preece RFK Racing 3.16 3.3% 6% 24% 31% 25% 10.0%
18 71 Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports 3.13 3.3% 9% 21% 29% 27% 11.5%
19 1 Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing 2.93 1.6% 15% 12% 29% 29% 14.5%
20 8 Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing 2.91 2.0% 10% 17% 26% 35% 9.3%
21 16 A.J. Allmendinger Kaulig Racing 2.88 2.3% 11% 15% 27% 33% 11.8%
22 35 Riley Herbst 23XI Racing 2.87 1.5% 11% 12% 36% 27% 12.2%
23 2 Austin Cindric Team Penske 2.69 1.3% 7% 14% 36% 34% 8.5%
24 22 Joey Logano Team Penske 2.47 1.9% 4% 16% 26% 41% 10.8%
25 88 Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing 2.37 1.1% 3% 10% 40% 35% 10.4%
26 43 Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club 2.32 1.1% 5% 9% 34% 39% 11.9%
27 3 Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing 2.24 1.0% 4% 8% 37% 40% 10.7%
28 42 John Hunter Nemechek Legacy Motor Club 2.10 0.9% 3% 7% 34% 43% 11.8%
29 67 Corey Heim 23XI Racing 2.10 1.0% 3% 7% 33% 46% 10.8%
30 38 Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports 2.09 0.9% 3% 8% 34% 40% 14.5%
31 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Hyak Motorsports 1.93 0.9% 2% 6% 30% 49% 12.5%
32 34 Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports 1.81 0.8% 3% 5% 23% 58% 9.9%
33 4 Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports 1.73 0.8% 2% 7% 19% 60% 11.4%
34 10 Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing 1.60 0.8% 2% 4% 19% 64% 10.5%
35 21 Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing 1.59 0.7% 1% 2% 24% 60% 11.3%
36 41 Cole Custer Haas Factory Team 1.48 1.1% 3% 2% 14% 65% 15.0%
37 51 Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing 1.16 0.8% 1% 2% 7% 71% 18.1%
38 66 Chad Finchum Garage 66 1.09 0.7% 1% 1% 4% 75% 17.6%
Rank # Driver Team Q EP Drv ELO TT ELO Org QualΔ SFΔ
1 45 Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing P4 4.65 1514 1514 23.0 +15.5 +1.3
2 17 Chris Buescher RFK Racing P5 4.19 1513 1500 27.4 +14.5 -1.0
3 20 Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing P37 4.01 1493 1513 27.1 -17.5 +6.5
4 12 Ryan Blaney Team Penske P12 3.92 1509 1510 25.0 +7.5 -5.2
5 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing P2 3.88 1516 1509 27.1 +17.5 +3.2
6 5 Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports P34 3.79 1495 1511 25.6 -14.5 -9.2
7 77 Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports P7 3.67 1512 1496 22.4 +12.5 -13.8
8 48 Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports P3 3.59 1514 1493 25.6 +16.5 -1.3
9 24 William Byron Hendrick Motorsports P8 3.48 1512 1507 25.6 +11.5 +2.7
10 7 Daniel Suarez Spire Motorsports P6 3.44 1513 1499 22.4 +13.5 +1.3
11 97 Shane van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing P16 3.44 1506 1514 20.9 +3.5 +2.2
12 6 Brad Keselowski RFK Racing P14 3.40 1509 1503 27.4 +5.5 -4.8
13 9 Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports P1 3.37 1517 1511 25.6 +18.5 +6.8
14 19 Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing P23 3.27 1503 1492 27.1 -3.5 -8.0
15 23 Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing P9 3.25 1511 1509 23.0 +10.5 +7.2
16 54 Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing P35 3.17 1494 1513 27.1 -15.5 -4.0
17 60 Ryan Preece RFK Racing P13 3.16 1509 1504 27.4 +6.5 +5.5
18 71 Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports P29 3.13 1498 1511 22.4 -9.5 -5.0
19 1 Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing P26 2.93 1500 1493 20.9 -6.5 -11.8
20 8 Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing P19 2.91 1505 1508 19.9 +0.5 -3.8
21 16 A.J. Allmendinger Kaulig Racing P24 2.88 1501 1510 17.5 -4.5 -0.5
22 35 Riley Herbst 23XI Racing P10 2.87 1511 1501 23.0 +9.5 -1.3
23 2 Austin Cindric Team Penske P17 2.69 1506 1495 25.0 +2.5 -4.7
24 22 Joey Logano Team Penske P38 2.47 1492 1506 25.0 -18.5 +0.2
25 88 Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing P15 2.37 1507 1506 20.9 +4.5 -6.0
26 43 Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club P11 2.32 1509 1493 20.0 +8.5 +5.7
27 3 Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing P18 2.24 1506 1504 19.9 +1.5 +1.3
28 42 John Hunter Nemechek Legacy Motor Club P21 2.10 1503 1505 20.0 -1.5 +7.8
29 67 Corey Heim 23XI Racing P30 2.10 1497 1500 23.0 -10.5 +0.0
30 38 Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports P22 2.09 1503 1495 18.5 -2.5 -3.3
31 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Hyak Motorsports P20 1.93 1504 1498 18.4 -0.5 +5.3
32 34 Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports P33 1.81 1495 1502 18.5 -13.5 -1.8
33 4 Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports P27 1.73 1499 1502 18.5 -7.5 +3.8
34 10 Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing P25 1.60 1501 1506 17.5 -5.5 +2.7
35 21 Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing P31 1.59 1497 1498 17.1 -11.5 -0.7
36 41 Cole Custer Haas Factory Team P36 1.48 1493 1497 16.1 -16.5 -1.0
37 51 Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing P28 1.16 1499 1496 12.2 -8.5 +4.5
38 66 Chad Finchum Garage 66 P32 1.09 1497 1500 7.6 -12.5 +0.0
33 more drivers behind the paywall.
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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-05-06 06:47