RACE 12 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Watkins Glen InternationalGo Bowling at The Glen

DateSunday, May 10, 2026

Track TypeRoad Course

Field38 drivers

ROAD COURSE

Watkins Glen International Updated 2026-05-10 21:16 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-05-10 21:16

Best by Expected Points · Win 9.0%

Christopher Bell • #20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Shane van Gisbergen (15.3%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Christopher Bell

Win 9.0% • Top-5 45% • EP 4.53

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Christopher Bell

Top-10 prob 64% • DNF 4.3%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Michael McDowell

Win prob 9.6% • Started P2

Risk Flag

Katherine Legge

DNF prob 23.5%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 78/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L8 of road course

78/100

HIGH

Road courses introduce more variance. Specialists outperform the field; cautions tend to cluster late.

Win pick hit rate

38%

Top-5 hit rate

50%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.49

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 9.0%

Top-5 45%

Exp pts 4.53

Start P8

Driver ELO 1493

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating.

#97 Trackhouse Racing

Shane van Gisbergen

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#97 Trackhouse Racing

Shane van Gisbergen

Win 15.3%

Top-5 32%

Exp pts 4.37

Start P1

Driver ELO 1506

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1).

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 7.5%

Top-5 36%

Exp pts 4.26

Start P9

Driver ELO 1503

Track-type ELO 1492

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P9), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#97Shane van Gisbergen

15.3%

#71Michael McDowell

9.6%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

27.0%

#97Shane van Gisbergen

23.9%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

44.9%

#19Chase Briscoe

36.0%

#97Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

63.8%

#97Shane van Gisbergen

53.0%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

Best Value

#20Christopher Bell

4.33

#19Chase Briscoe

4.01

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#97Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#Katherine Legge

23.5%

#41Cole Custer

17.6%

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#97Shane van Gisbergen

Win • +0.14 (start P1)

#45Tyler Reddick

Top-10 • +0.12 (start P15)

#12Ryan Blaney

Top-5 • +0.06 (start P7)

#60Ryan Preece

Boost • +0.05 (start P30)

#77Carson Hocevar

Boost • +0.04 (start P11)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#9Chase Elliott

Avg P17 • 5 starts (best P2)

#60Ryan Preece

Avg P17 • 4 starts (best P9)

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	4.53	9.0%	27.0%	45%	64%	4.3%	1493	27.1	7 (5)	—
2	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P1	4.37	15.3%	23.9%	32%	53%	14.9%	1506	20.9	2 (2)	+0.14
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	4.26	7.5%	21.7%	36%	48%	5.9%	1503	27.1	16 (5)	0.01
4	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P7	4.18	8.3%	17.7%	27%	51%	7.5%	1509	25.0	18 (5)	+0.06
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P23	4.17	3.9%	17.7%	31%	51%	7.8%	1495	25.6	16 (5)	-0.15
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23		A. J. Allmendinger		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24		Daniel Suárez		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30		Josh Bilicki (i)		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Katherine Legge		—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.53	9.0%	45%	64%	76%	96%	4.3%
2	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	4.37	15.3%	32%	53%	66%	85%	14.9%
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.26	7.5%	36%	48%	70%	94%	5.9%
4	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	4.18	8.3%	27%	51%	72%	92%	7.5%
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.17	3.9%	31%	51%	74%	92%	7.8%
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23		A. J. Allmendinger		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24		Daniel Suárez		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30		Josh Bilicki (i)		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Katherine Legge		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	4.53	1493	1513	27.1	+11.5	+6.5
2	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P1	4.37	1506	1514	20.9	+18.5	+2.2
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	4.26	1503	1492	27.1	+10.5	-8.0
4	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P7	4.18	1509	1510	25.0	+12.5	-5.2
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P23	4.17	1495	1511	25.6	-3.5	-9.2
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23		A. J. Allmendinger		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24		Daniel Suárez		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30		Josh Bilicki (i)		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37		Katherine Legge		—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

33 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Full board.

All 38 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-05-10 21:16 • Practice blended