RACE 11 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Texas Motor SpeedwayWurth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

DateSunday, May 3, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field38 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Texas Motor Speedway Updated 2026-05-03 21:15 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-05-03 21:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 51.5%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P4), strong organization rating.

Top by every metric this week — Expected Points, Win odds, and DNF avoidance. See full picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 51.5% • Top-5 71% • EP 7.47

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 80% • DNF 4.6%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Brad Keselowski

Win prob 19.1% • Started P25

Risk Flag

Josh Berry

DNF prob 24.5%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 75/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

75/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 51.5%

Top-5 71%

Exp pts 7.47

Start P4

Driver ELO 1508

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P4), strong organization rating.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 42.6%

Top-5 58%

Exp pts 6.79

Start P5

Driver ELO 1499

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

#17 RFK Racing

Chris Buescher

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#17 RFK Racing

Chris Buescher

Win 20.1%

Top-5 44%

Exp pts 5.73

Start P3

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1510

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

51.5%

#19Chase Briscoe

42.6%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

61.1%

#19Chase Briscoe

50.4%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

70.6%

#19Chase Briscoe

58.1%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

80.1%

#19Chase Briscoe

73.4%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

7.13

#19Chase Briscoe

6.03

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#21Josh Berry

24.5%

#88Connor Zilisch

22.7%

#43Erik Jones

— SUB

#67Corey Heim

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#24William Byron

Top-5 • +0.29 (start P15)

#17Chris Buescher

Top-5 • +0.27 (start P3)

#5Kyle Larson

Top-10 • +0.25 (start P11)

#45Tyler Reddick

Top-10 • +0.25 (start P8)

#19Chase Briscoe

Win • +0.23 (start P5)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#22Joey Logano

Avg P11 • 7 starts (best P1)

#12Ryan Blaney

Avg P12 • 7 starts (best P3)

#3Austin Dillon

Avg P13 • 7 starts (best P1)

#43Erik Jones

Avg P14 • 7 starts (best P5)

#1Ross Chastain

Avg P15 • 5 starts (best P2)

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	7.47	51.5%	61.1%	71%	80%	4.6%	1508	27.6	18 (7)	+0.17
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	6.79	42.6%	50.4%	58%	73%	11.2%	1499	27.6	13 (5)	+0.23
3	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P3	5.73	20.1%	32.1%	44%	67%	10.0%	1515	27.3	22 (7)	+0.27
4	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P15	5.67	22.0%	36.6%	51%	68%	9.7%	1496	25.1	11 (7)	+0.29
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	5.62	27.5%	38.5%	50%	67%	11.8%	1506	27.6	13 (7)	0.02
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	7.47	51.5%	71%	80%	89%	95%	4.6%
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.79	42.6%	58%	73%	82%	89%	11.2%
3	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	5.73	20.1%	44%	67%	85%	90%	10.0%
4	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.67	22.0%	51%	68%	81%	90%	9.7%
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.62	27.5%	50%	67%	79%	88%	11.8%
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	7.47	1508	1513	27.6	+15.5	+2.2
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	6.79	1499	1514	27.6	+14.5	+8.3
3	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P3	5.73	1515	1510	27.3	+16.5	-1.8
4	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P15	5.67	1496	1512	25.1	+4.5	-4.3
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	5.62	1506	1503	27.6	+12.5	+0.7
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

33 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Full board.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-05-03 21:15 • Practice blended