RACE 10 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Talladega SuperspeedwayJack Link's 500

DateSunday, April 26, 2026

Track TypeSuperspeedway

Field40 drivers

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Talladega Superspeedway Updated 2026-04-26 21:31

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-04-26 21:31

Best by Expected Points · Win 35.9%

Brad Keselowski • #6 RFK Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6).

Lowest DNF risk: Chris Buescher (14.0%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Brad Keselowski

Win 35.9% • Top-5 48% • EP 5.67

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Chase Briscoe

Top-10 prob 65% • DNF 17.4%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Kyle Larson

Win prob 21.4% • Started P2

Risk Flag

Daniel Dye

DNF prob 46.6%

Race Confidence

CHAOS • 18/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L7 of superspeedway

18/100

CHAOS RACE

Plate-race outcomes diverge from the model — drafting luck and late wrecks dominate. Honesty over confidence.

Win pick hit rate

14%

Top-5 hit rate

14%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.10

Chaos race Superspeedway results historically diverge from the model. Survival probability matters more than expected finish — read this card as guidance, not a forecast.

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#6 RFK Racing

Brad Keselowski

Win 35.9%

Top-5 48%

Exp pts 5.67

Start P6

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6).

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 19.1%

Top-5 52%

Exp pts 5.29

Start P5

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1492

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 27.5%

Top-5 42%

Exp pts 4.96

Start P1

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1). Watch-out: elevated DNF risk (20%).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#6Brad Keselowski

35.9%

#45Tyler Reddick

27.5%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#6Brad Keselowski

41.7%

#19Chase Briscoe

35.3%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

51.5%

#6Brad Keselowski

47.6%

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

65.3%

#6Brad Keselowski

63.7%

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Best Value

#6Brad Keselowski

4.71

#19Chase Briscoe

4.37

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#78Daniel Dye

46.6%

#4Noah Gragson

38.0%

#10Ty Dillon

— SUB

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

#33Jesse Love

— SUB

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

Unlock with subscription

Track Sleepers

#34Todd Gilliland

Avg P13 • 8 starts (best P2)

#43Erik Jones

Avg P15 • 12 starts (best P2)

#77Carson Hocevar

Avg P16 • 5 starts (best P6)

05 Full Projections

40 drivers • top 5 free40 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P6	5.67	35.9%	41.7%	48%	64%	16.9%	1514	27.1	14 (12)	—
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	5.29	19.1%	35.3%	52%	65%	17.4%	1515	27.9	15 (10)	—
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	4.96	27.5%	34.6%	42%	54%	19.8%	1516	23.1	18 (12)	—
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P4	4.95	20.0%	32.4%	45%	61%	21.6%	1514	23.1	17 (12)	—
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	4.82	17.2%	28.7%	40%	61%	16.2%	1511	27.9	22 (7)	—
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	78	Daniel Dye	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	Joey Gase	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	5.67	35.9%	48%	64%	77%	83%	16.9%
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.29	19.1%	52%	65%	78%	83%	17.4%
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	4.96	27.5%	42%	54%	70%	80%	19.8%
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	4.95	20.0%	45%	61%	73%	78%	21.6%
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.82	17.2%	40%	61%	73%	84%	16.2%
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	78	Daniel Dye	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	Joey Gase	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P6	5.67	1514	1513	27.1	+14.5	+1.8
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	5.29	1515	1492	27.9	+15.5	-7.0
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	4.96	1516	1514	23.1	+19.5	+9.0
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P4	4.95	1514	1508	23.1	+16.5	+1.8
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	4.82	1511	1500	27.9	+11.5	+4.0
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	78	Daniel Dye	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	Joey Gase	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-04-26 21:31