RACE 9 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Kansas SpeedwayAdventHealth 400

DateSunday, April 19, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field37 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Kansas Speedway Updated 2026-04-19 21:19 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-04-19 21:19

Best by Expected Points · Win 44.9%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: Chris Buescher (7.6%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 44.9% • Top-5 65% • EP 6.77

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 77% • DNF 9.8%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Kyle Larson

Win prob 22.9% • Started P4

Risk Flag

Austin Cindric

DNF prob 21.5%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 44.9%

Top-5 65%

Exp pts 6.77

Start P2

Driver ELO 1511

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 29.4%

Top-5 63%

Exp pts 6.28

Start P5

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1508

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win 33.5%

Top-5 49%

Exp pts 6.12

Start P3

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

44.9%

#54Ty Gibbs

33.5%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

54.9%

#19Chase Briscoe

46.2%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

65.0%

#19Chase Briscoe

62.9%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

77.4%

#5Kyle Larson

74.4%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

6.11

#19Chase Briscoe

5.65

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#2Austin Cindric

21.5%

#88Connor Zilisch

20.6%

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#10Ty Dillon

— SUB

#67Corey Heim

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#45Tyler Reddick

Top-5 • +0.37 (start P1)

#20Christopher Bell

Top-10 • +0.36 (start P11)

#17Chris Buescher

Top-5 • +0.33 (start P7)

#23Bubba Wallace

Top-10 • +0.31 (start P10)

#54Ty Gibbs

Top-5 • +0.28 (start P3)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#48Alex Bowman

Avg P10 • 11 starts (best P3)

#1Ross Chastain

Avg P11 • 10 starts (best P1)

#8Kyle Busch

Avg P15 • 12 starts (best P1)

#3Austin Dillon

Avg P18 • 12 starts (best P10)

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.77	44.9%	54.9%	65%	77%	9.8%	1511	27.6	8 (12)	-0.10
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	6.28	29.4%	46.2%	63%	73%	10.0%	1514	27.6	18 (10)	+0.07
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	6.12	33.5%	41.4%	49%	66%	16.5%	1516	27.6	25 (7)	+0.28
4	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P7	5.97	21.9%	32.5%	43%	67%	7.6%	1509	27.1	16 (12)	+0.33
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	5.78	20.3%	33.4%	46%	68%	9.7%	1514	22.5	18 (12)	+0.37
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.77	44.9%	65%	77%	87%	90%	9.8%
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.28	29.4%	63%	73%	84%	90%	10.0%
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.12	33.5%	49%	66%	79%	83%	16.5%
4	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	5.97	21.9%	43%	67%	86%	92%	7.6%
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	5.78	20.3%	46%	68%	81%	90%	9.7%
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.77	1511	1509	27.6	+17.0	+2.5
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	6.28	1514	1508	27.6	+14.0	+8.2
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	6.12	1516	1513	27.6	+16.0	-3.7
4	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P7	5.97	1509	1511	27.1	+12.0	-1.0
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	5.78	1514	1515	22.5	+18.0	-1.2
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Full board.

All 37 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-04-19 21:19 • Practice blended