RACE 8 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Bristol Motor SpeedwayFood City 500

DateSunday, April 12, 2026

Track TypeShort Track

Field36 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Bristol Motor Speedway Updated 2026-04-12 07:08 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-04-12 07:08

Best by Expected Points · Win 26.9%

Ryan Blaney • #12 Team Penske

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

Best Win odds: Ty Gibbs (48.4%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Ryan Blaney

Win 26.9% • Top-5 63% • EP 7.05

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Ty Gibbs

Top-10 prob 84% • DNF 3.8%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Ryan Preece

Win prob 16.8% • Started P17

Risk Flag

Cody Ware

DNF prob 35.6%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 94/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

94/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.60

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 26.9%

Top-5 63%

Exp pts 7.05

Start P1

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win 48.4%

Top-5 63%

Exp pts 7.05

Start P5

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5).

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 21.8%

Top-5 56%

Exp pts 6.45

Start P8

Driver ELO 1512

Track-type ELO 1510

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#54Ty Gibbs

48.4%

#20Christopher Bell

35.6%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#54Ty Gibbs

55.5%

#20Christopher Bell

45.5%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

63.0%

#54Ty Gibbs

62.7%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#54Ty Gibbs

83.5%

#12Ryan Blaney

79.9%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Value

#54Ty Gibbs

6.78

#12Ryan Blaney

6.75

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#51Cody Ware

35.6%

#24William Byron

25.6%

#10Ty Dillon

— SUB

#48Justin Allgaier

— SUB

#34Todd Gilliland

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

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Practice Risers

#12Ryan Blaney

Win • +0.41 (start P1)

#71Michael McDowell

Boost • +0.35 (start P19)

#77Carson Hocevar

Boost • +0.32 (start P10)

#4Noah Gragson

Boost • +0.31 (start P16)

#38Zane Smith

Boost • +0.27 (start P15)

Track Sleepers

Mid-pack drivers with strong history at this specific track — often the most overlooked value picks.

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Track Sleepers

#17Chris Buescher

Avg P13 • 9 starts (best P1)

#1Ross Chastain

Avg P13 • 7 starts (best P6)

#71Michael McDowell

Avg P15 • 9 starts (best P6)

#43Erik Jones

Avg P17 • 9 starts (best P3)

#42John Hunter Nemechek

Avg P18 • 6 starts (best P6)

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	7.05	26.9%	45.0%	63%	80%	4.3%	1513	24.5	16 (9)	+0.41
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	7.05	48.4%	55.5%	63%	84%	3.8%	1514	27.3	13 (6)	-0.08
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	6.45	21.8%	38.8%	56%	77%	4.1%	1512	24.9	7 (7)	+0.23
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P11	6.41	32.8%	45.0%	57%	75%	9.0%	1515	27.3	11 (9)	+0.09
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P14	5.98	35.6%	45.5%	56%	68%	6.7%	1512	27.3	11 (9)	-0.13
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	48	Justin Allgaier	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	7.05	26.9%	63%	80%	89%	96%	4.3%
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	7.05	48.4%	63%	84%	92%	96%	3.8%
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	6.45	21.8%	56%	77%	91%	96%	4.1%
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.41	32.8%	57%	75%	87%	91%	9.0%
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.98	35.6%	56%	68%	85%	93%	6.7%
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	48	Justin Allgaier	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	7.05	1513	1512	24.5	+17.8	+7.0
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	7.05	1514	1513	27.3	+13.8	-4.0
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	6.45	1512	1510	24.9	+10.8	-2.8
4	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P11	6.41	1515	1514	27.3	+7.8	-9.7
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P14	5.98	1512	1512	27.3	+4.8	+8.2
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	48	Justin Allgaier	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-04-12 07:08 • Practice blended