RACE 7 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Martinsville SpeedwayCook Out 400

DateSunday, March 29, 2026

Track TypeShort Track

Field36 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Martinsville Speedway Updated 2026-03-29 17:04 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-29 17:04

Best by Expected Points · Win 32.5%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

Top by every metric this week — Expected Points, Win odds, and DNF avoidance. See full picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 32.5% • Top-5 78% • EP 7.37

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 89% • DNF 2.4%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Christopher Bell

Win prob 27.2% • Started P19

Risk Flag

Cody Ware

DNF prob 24.9%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 91/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

91/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.57

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 32.5%

Top-5 78%

Exp pts 7.37

Start P1

Driver ELO 1510

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 24.6%

Top-5 67%

Exp pts 6.74

Start P2

Driver ELO 1512

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win 29.7%

Top-5 58%

Exp pts 6.37

Start P4

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

32.5%

#54Ty Gibbs

29.7%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

55.1%

#24William Byron

45.7%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

77.8%

#24William Byron

66.8%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

88.5%

#24William Byron

81.9%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

7.19

#24William Byron

6.53

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#51Cody Ware

24.9%

#3Austin Dillon

17.9%

#42John Hunter Nemechek

— SUB

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

#10Ty Dillon

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

Unlock with subscription

Practice Risers

#5Kyle Larson

Top-10 • +0.46 (start P13)

#12Ryan Blaney

Top-5 • +0.45 (start P12)

#23Bubba Wallace

Top-10 • +0.43 (start P15)

#9Chase Elliott

Top-5 • +0.39 (start P10)

#21Josh Berry

Boost • +0.35 (start P3)

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	7.37	32.5%	55.1%	78%	89%	2.4%	1510	26.9	—	+0.13
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	6.74	24.6%	45.7%	67%	82%	3.1%	1512	24.8	—	+0.14
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	6.37	29.7%	44.0%	58%	79%	3.4%	1513	26.9	—	-0.01
4	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P12	6.07	9.8%	31.9%	54%	72%	10.4%	1515	24.2	—	+0.45
5	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P10	5.88	12.6%	24.9%	37%	74%	5.3%	1507	24.8	—	+0.39
6	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	48	Justin Allgaier	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	7.37	32.5%	78%	89%	94%	98%	2.4%
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	6.74	24.6%	67%	82%	92%	97%	3.1%
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.37	29.7%	58%	79%	90%	97%	3.4%
4	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	6.07	9.8%	54%	72%	84%	90%	10.4%
5	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	5.88	12.6%	37%	74%	87%	95%	5.3%
6	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	48	Justin Allgaier	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	7.37	1510	1512	26.9	+17.6	-10.5
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	6.74	1512	1511	24.8	+16.6	-5.0
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	6.37	1513	1512	26.9	+14.6	-3.2
4	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P12	6.07	1515	1515	24.2	+6.6	+8.8
5	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P10	5.88	1507	1501	24.8	+8.6	-3.0
6	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	48	Justin Allgaier	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

31 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-29 17:04 • Practice blended