RACE 6 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING • POST-PRACTICE

Darlington RacewayGoodyear 400

DateSunday, March 22, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field36 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Darlington Raceway Updated 2026-03-24 20:15 • Practice

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-24 20:15

Best by Expected Points · Win 34.6%

Brad Keselowski • #6 RFK Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5).

Lowest DNF risk: Bubba Wallace (6.6%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Brad Keselowski

Win 34.6% • Top-5 67% • EP 6.76

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Brad Keselowski

Top-10 prob 79% • DNF 8.6%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Chase Briscoe

Win prob 25.6% • Started P23

Risk Flag

Carson Hocevar

DNF prob 24.0%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

35%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.49

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#6 RFK Racing

Brad Keselowski

Win 34.6%

Top-5 67%

Exp pts 6.76

Start P5

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5).

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 17.9%

Top-5 61%

Exp pts 6.40

Start P1

Driver ELO 1517

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#17 RFK Racing

Chris Buescher

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#17 RFK Racing

Chris Buescher

Win 20.2%

Top-5 44%

Exp pts 5.54

Start P6

Driver ELO 1511

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#6Brad Keselowski

34.6%

#19Chase Briscoe

25.6%

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#6Brad Keselowski

50.8%

#45Tyler Reddick

39.5%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#6Brad Keselowski

66.9%

#45Tyler Reddick

61.1%

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#6Brad Keselowski

78.7%

#45Tyler Reddick

77.3%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Best Value

#6Brad Keselowski

6.18

#45Tyler Reddick

5.82

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#77Carson Hocevar

24.0%

#35Riley Herbst

20.8%

#10Ty Dillon

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Practice Risers

Drivers who outran their model rank in practice this week — the kind of edge fantasy and bet builders look for.

Unlock with subscription

Practice Risers

#45Tyler Reddick

Win • +0.36 (start P1)

#2Austin Cindric

Top-10 • +0.33 (start P12)

#77Carson Hocevar

Boost • +0.32 (start P16)

#54Ty Gibbs

Boost • +0.28 (start P28)

#8Kyle Busch

Boost • +0.27 (start P8)

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P5	6.76	34.6%	50.8%	67%	79%	8.6%	1516	27.3	—	+0.21
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	6.40	17.9%	39.5%	61%	77%	9.0%	1517	22.4	—	+0.36
3	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P6	5.54	20.2%	31.9%	44%	68%	8.7%	1511	27.3	—	+0.08
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P2	5.46	10.5%	33.8%	57%	68%	6.6%	1495	22.4	—	0.01
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	5.41	18.3%	36.9%	55%	69%	16.0%	1510	26.9	—	-0.06
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	48	Justin Allgaier	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	6.76	34.6%	67%	79%	85%	91%	8.6%
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	6.40	17.9%	61%	77%	85%	91%	9.0%
3	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	5.54	20.2%	44%	68%	84%	91%	8.7%
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	5.46	10.5%	57%	68%	85%	93%	6.6%
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.41	18.3%	55%	69%	81%	84%	16.0%
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	48	Justin Allgaier	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P5	6.76	1516	1515	27.3	+13.5	+10.3
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	6.40	1517	1515	22.4	+17.5	-1.2
3	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P6	5.54	1511	1511	27.3	+12.5	-1.0
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P2	5.46	1495	1494	22.4	+16.5	-7.2
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	5.41	1510	1509	26.9	+9.5	+2.5
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	48	Justin Allgaier	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-24 20:15 • Practice blended