RACE 5 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Las Vegas Motor SpeedwayPennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube

DateSunday, March 15, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field36 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 09:08

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 09:08

Best by Expected Points · Win 37.3%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: Joey Logano (9.1%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 37.3% • Top-5 64% • EP 6.50

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 76% • DNF 12.0%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Daniel Suarez

Win prob 16.4% • Started P13

Risk Flag

Carson Hocevar

DNF prob 25.7%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

35%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.49

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 37.3%

Top-5 64%

Exp pts 6.50

Start P2

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1507

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 17.2%

Top-5 50%

Exp pts 5.54

Start P5

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1494

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 24.3%

Top-5 51%

Exp pts 5.42

Start P7

Driver ELO 1511

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P7).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

37.3%

#19Chase Briscoe

28.3%

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

50.7%

#19Chase Briscoe

38.7%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

64.1%

#45Tyler Reddick

50.6%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

76.3%

#5Kyle Larson

72.0%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

5.72

#5Kyle Larson

4.92

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#77Carson Hocevar

25.7%

#10Ty Dillon

20.8%

#42John Hunter Nemechek

— SUB

#35Riley Herbst

— SUB

#48Justin Allgaier

— SUB

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.50	37.3%	50.7%	64%	76%	12.0%	1514	26.8	—	—
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.54	17.2%	33.4%	50%	72%	11.2%	1515	25.2	—	—
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P7	5.42	24.3%	37.5%	51%	67%	16.0%	1511	22.2	—	—
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P18	5.34	28.3%	38.7%	49%	57%	12.7%	1492	26.8	—	—
5	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P4	5.22	25.2%	34.4%	44%	63%	15.4%	1513	22.2	—	—
6	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	48	Justin Allgaier	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.50	37.3%	64%	76%	85%	88%	12.0%
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.54	17.2%	50%	72%	85%	89%	11.2%
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	5.42	24.3%	51%	67%	75%	84%	16.0%
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.34	28.3%	49%	57%	75%	87%	12.7%
5	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	5.22	25.2%	44%	63%	75%	85%	15.4%
6	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	48	Justin Allgaier	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.50	1514	1507	26.8	+16.5	+7.7
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.54	1515	1494	25.2	+13.5	-4.7
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P7	5.42	1511	1514	22.2	+11.5	-4.0
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P18	5.34	1492	1514	26.8	+0.5	+2.0
5	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P4	5.22	1513	1511	22.2	+14.5	-0.5
6	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	48	Justin Allgaier	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 09:08