RACE 4 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Phoenix RacewayStraight Talk Wireless 500

DateSunday, March 8, 2026

Track TypeShort Track

Field37 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Phoenix Raceway Updated 2026-03-17 09:08

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 09:08

Best by Expected Points · Win 20.5%

Kyle Larson • #5 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

Best Win odds: Joey Logano (43.1%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Kyle Larson

Win 20.5% • Top-5 73% • EP 6.68

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Kyle Larson

Top-10 prob 88% • DNF 2.8%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Christopher Bell

Win prob 17.4% • Started P12

Risk Flag

Cody Ware

DNF prob 28.8%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 94/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

94/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.60

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 20.5%

Top-5 73%

Exp pts 6.68

Start P2

Driver ELO 1512

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win 43.1%

Top-5 59%

Exp pts 6.68

Start P1

Driver ELO 1508

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

#60 RFK Racing

Ryan Preece

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#60 RFK Racing

Ryan Preece

Win 40.4%

Top-5 51%

Exp pts 6.24

Start P13

Driver ELO 1504

Track-type ELO 1510

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#22Joey Logano

43.1%

#60Ryan Preece

40.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#22Joey Logano

50.9%

#5Kyle Larson

46.8%

#60Ryan Preece

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

73.2%

#12Ryan Blaney

58.9%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#60Ryan Preece

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

87.8%

#12Ryan Blaney

78.9%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Value

#5Kyle Larson

6.49

#22Joey Logano

6.47

#60Ryan Preece

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#51Cody Ware

28.8%

#33Austin Hill

25.0%

#48Anthony Alfredo

— SUB

#97Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#43Erik Jones

— SUB

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	6.68	20.5%	46.8%	73%	88%	2.8%	1512	25.2	—	—
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P1	6.68	43.1%	50.9%	59%	76%	3.0%	1508	23.8	—	—
3	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	P13	6.24	40.4%	45.5%	51%	65%	3.6%	1504	26.8	—	—
4	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P5	6.00	16.4%	37.7%	59%	79%	3.4%	1512	23.8	—	—
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P11	5.70	20.6%	35.4%	50%	70%	5.8%	1510	26.9	—	—
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	48	Anthony Alfredo	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	6.68	20.5%	73%	88%	94%	97%	2.8%
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	6.68	43.1%	59%	76%	86%	97%	3.0%
3	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	6.24	40.4%	51%	65%	87%	96%	3.6%
4	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	6.00	16.4%	59%	79%	89%	97%	3.4%
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.70	20.6%	50%	70%	87%	94%	5.8%
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	48	Anthony Alfredo	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	6.68	1512	1515	25.2	+17.0	-3.5
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P1	6.68	1508	1514	23.8	+18.0	+9.2
3	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	P13	6.24	1504	1510	26.8	+6.0	+4.3
4	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P5	6.00	1512	1515	23.8	+14.0	+8.5
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P11	5.70	1510	1512	26.9	+8.0	-13.7
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	48	Anthony Alfredo	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 09:08