RACE 3 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Circuit of the AmericasDuraMax Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne

DateSunday, March 1, 2026

Track TypeRoad Course

Field37 drivers

ROAD COURSE

Circuit of the Americas Updated 2026-03-17 09:08

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 09:08

Best by Expected Points · Win 45.1%

Christopher Bell • #20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: Ty Gibbs (6.3%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Christopher Bell

Win 45.1% • Top-5 59% • EP 6.48

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Christopher Bell

Top-10 prob 71% • DNF 6.9%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

A.J. Allmendinger

Win prob 20.2% • Started P7

Risk Flag

Jesse Love

DNF prob 28.7%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 76/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L10 of road course

76/100

HIGH

Road courses introduce more variance. Specialists outperform the field; cautions tend to cluster late.

Win pick hit rate

30%

Top-5 hit rate

46%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 45.1%

Top-5 59%

Exp pts 6.48

Start P8

Driver ELO 1503

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating.

#1 Trackhouse Racing

Ross Chastain

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#1 Trackhouse Racing

Ross Chastain

Win 26.7%

Top-5 58%

Exp pts 5.79

Start P2

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1501

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

#71 Spire Motorsports

Michael McDowell

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#71 Spire Motorsports

Michael McDowell

Win 35.8%

Top-5 45%

Exp pts 5.75

Start P6

Driver ELO 1504

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6), recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#20Christopher Bell

45.1%

#71Michael McDowell

35.8%

#97Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

52.0%

#1Ross Chastain

42.2%

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

#97Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

59.0%

#1Ross Chastain

57.7%

#97Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

71.0%

#71Michael McDowell

68.8%

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

Best Value

#20Christopher Bell

6.03

#1Ross Chastain

5.29

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

#97Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#33Jesse Love

28.7%

#35Riley Herbst

23.3%

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

#43Erik Jones

— SUB

#42John Hunter Nemechek

— SUB

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	6.48	45.1%	52.0%	59%	71%	6.9%	1503	26.9	—	—
2	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	P2	5.79	26.7%	42.2%	58%	68%	8.6%	1516	22.3	—	—
3	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	P6	5.75	35.8%	40.5%	45%	69%	14.0%	1504	20.7	—	—
4	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P13	5.40	26.8%	39.0%	51%	60%	9.5%	1513	22.3	—	—
5	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	5.30	19.9%	32.0%	44%	63%	8.1%	1515	26.9	—	—
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.48	45.1%	59%	71%	80%	93%	6.9%
2	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	5.79	26.7%	58%	68%	78%	91%	8.6%
3	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	5.75	35.8%	45%	69%	77%	86%	14.0%
4	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	5.40	26.8%	51%	60%	73%	91%	9.5%
5	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.30	19.9%	44%	63%	82%	92%	8.1%
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	6.48	1503	1513	26.9	+11.0	+8.7
2	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	P2	5.79	1516	1501	22.3	+17.0	-6.8
3	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	P6	5.75	1504	1513	20.7	+13.0	-4.3
4	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P13	5.40	1513	1514	22.3	+6.0	+0.3
5	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	5.30	1515	1506	26.9	+16.0	-1.7
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 09:08