RACE 2 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

EchoPark SpeedwayAutotrader 400

DateSunday, February 22, 2026

Track TypeIntermediate

Field38 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

EchoPark Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 09:08

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 09:08

Best by Expected Points · Win 30.0%

Brad Keselowski • #6 RFK Racing

Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Chase Elliott (32.8%) · Lowest DNF risk: Chase Briscoe (7.0%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Brad Keselowski

Win 30.0% • Top-5 53% • EP 5.77

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Brad Keselowski

Top-10 prob 69% • DNF 12.3%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Kyle Larson

Win prob 18.4% • Started P16

Risk Flag

J.J. Yeley

DNF prob 27.6%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 75/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

75/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#6 RFK Racing

Brad Keselowski

Win 30.0%

Top-5 53%

Exp pts 5.77

Start P5

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1508

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 32.8%

Top-5 49%

Exp pts 5.69

Start P4

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1504

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4), strong organization rating.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 21.9%

Top-5 56%

Exp pts 5.58

Start P34

Driver ELO 1495

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, qualified well above field average, strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#9Chase Elliott

32.8%

#6Brad Keselowski

30.0%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#6Brad Keselowski

41.2%

#9Chase Elliott

40.8%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

55.6%

#6Brad Keselowski

52.5%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#6Brad Keselowski

69.4%

#9Chase Elliott

66.0%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Value

#19Chase Briscoe

5.19

#6Brad Keselowski

5.06

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#44J.J. Yeley

27.6%

#42John Hunter Nemechek

24.8%

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

#10Ty Dillon

— SUB

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P5	5.77	30.0%	41.2%	53%	69%	12.3%	1513	26.7	—	—
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	5.69	32.8%	40.8%	49%	66%	15.3%	1514	25.5	—	—
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P34	5.58	21.9%	38.7%	56%	63%	7.0%	1495	26.5	—	—
4	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P2	5.34	23.8%	34.1%	44%	62%	9.8%	1514	24.3	—	—
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	5.18	27.9%	33.5%	39%	56%	14.2%	1516	21.1	—	—
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	5.77	30.0%	53%	69%	78%	88%	12.3%
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	5.69	32.8%	49%	66%	78%	85%	15.3%
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.58	21.9%	56%	63%	81%	93%	7.0%
4	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	5.34	23.8%	44%	62%	80%	90%	9.8%
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	5.18	27.9%	39%	56%	79%	86%	14.2%
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P5	5.77	1513	1508	26.7	+14.5	+13.8
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	5.69	1514	1504	25.5	+15.5	+6.7
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P34	5.58	1495	1512	26.5	-14.5	-7.5
4	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P2	5.34	1514	1512	24.3	+17.5	-5.5
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	5.18	1516	1511	21.1	+18.5	-0.8
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 09:08