RACE 1 / 36 2026 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Daytona International SpeedwayDAYTONA 500

DateSunday, February 15, 2026

Track TypeSuperspeedway

Field41 drivers

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Daytona International Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 09:08

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 09:08

Best by Expected Points · Win 51.9%

Chase Briscoe • #19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: William Byron (11.7%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Chase Briscoe

Win 51.9% • Top-5 60% • EP 6.65

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Chase Briscoe

Top-10 prob 73% • DNF 14.6%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

John Hunter Nemechek

Win prob 15.2% • Started P11

Risk Flag

Joey Logano

DNF prob 34.8%

Race Confidence

CHAOS • 18/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L7 of superspeedway

18/100

CHAOS RACE

Plate-race outcomes diverge from the model — drafting luck and late wrecks dominate. Honesty over confidence.

Win pick hit rate

14%

Top-5 hit rate

14%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.10

Chaos race Superspeedway results historically diverge from the model. Survival probability matters more than expected finish — read this card as guidance, not a forecast.

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 51.9%

Top-5 60%

Exp pts 6.65

Start P2

Driver ELO 1504

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 27.7%

Top-5 47%

Exp pts 5.47

Start P4

Driver ELO 1510

Track-type ELO 1489

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P4), strong organization rating.

#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win 30.1%

Top-5 45%

Exp pts 5.17

Start P20

Driver ELO 1502

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, strong organization rating. Watch-out: elevated DNF risk (20%).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

51.9%

#54Ty Gibbs

30.1%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#42John Hunter Nemechek

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

55.8%

#54Ty Gibbs

37.8%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

59.7%

#9Chase Elliott

47.0%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

73.0%

#9Chase Elliott

63.0%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

Best Value

#19Chase Briscoe

5.68

#9Chase Elliott

4.71

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#22Joey Logano

34.8%

#43Erik Jones

33.8%

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

#40Justin Allgaier

— SUB

05 Full Projections

41 drivers • top 5 free41 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.65	51.9%	55.8%	60%	73%	14.6%	1504	27.6	—	—
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	5.47	27.7%	37.3%	47%	63%	14.0%	1510	25.7	—	—
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P20	5.17	30.1%	37.8%	45%	58%	19.8%	1502	27.6	—	—
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P12	4.72	12.5%	27.0%	41%	58%	13.7%	1509	27.6	—	—
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P5	4.54	18.8%	29.3%	40%	52%	22.1%	1516	24.1	—	—
6	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	40	Justin Allgaier	JR Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	84	Jimmie Johnson	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
41	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.65	51.9%	60%	73%	79%	85%	14.6%
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	5.47	27.7%	47%	63%	79%	86%	14.0%
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.17	30.1%	45%	58%	70%	80%	19.8%
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.72	12.5%	41%	58%	75%	86%	13.7%
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	4.54	18.8%	40%	52%	68%	78%	22.1%
6	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	40	Justin Allgaier	JR Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	84	Jimmie Johnson	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
41	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.65	1504	1513	27.6	+19.0	-2.7
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	5.47	1510	1489	25.7	+17.0	-2.0
3	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P20	5.17	1502	1512	27.6	+1.0	+8.0
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P12	4.72	1509	1509	27.6	+9.0	+0.8
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P5	4.54	1516	1501	24.1	+16.0	-13.8
6	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	97	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	40	Justin Allgaier	JR Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Daniel Suarez	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	84	Jimmie Johnson	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
41	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 09:08