RACE 36 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Phoenix RacewayNASCAR Cup Series Championship

DateSunday, November 2, 2025

Track TypeShort Track

Field38 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Phoenix Raceway Updated 2026-03-17 08:57

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:57

Best by Expected Points · Win 35.7%

Kyle Larson • #5 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

Lowest DNF risk: Denny Hamlin (2.5%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Kyle Larson

Win 35.7% • Top-5 65% • EP 6.83

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

William Byron

Top-10 prob 89% • DNF 3.0%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Christopher Bell

Win prob 18.6% • Started P20

Risk Flag

A.J. Allmendinger

DNF prob 32.4%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 94/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

94/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.60

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 35.7%

Top-5 65%

Exp pts 6.83

Start P3

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 15.8%

Top-5 77%

Exp pts 6.65

Start P2

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 20.7%

Top-5 62%

Exp pts 6.30

Start P5

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#5Kyle Larson

35.7%

#9Chase Elliott

31.8%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

50.2%

#24William Byron

46.5%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#24William Byron

77.2%

#5Kyle Larson

64.7%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#24William Byron

88.6%

#5Kyle Larson

82.5%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Best Value

#5Kyle Larson

6.58

#24William Byron

6.45

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#16A.J. Allmendinger

32.4%

#44J.J. Yeley

28.4%

#10Ty Dillon

— SUB

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

#66Casey Mears

— SUB

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	6.83	35.7%	50.2%	65%	83%	3.6%	1513	25.9	—	—
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	6.65	15.8%	46.5%	77%	89%	3.0%	1516	25.9	—	—
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P5	6.30	20.7%	41.1%	62%	82%	3.2%	1515	24.1	—	—
4	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P17	5.84	31.8%	39.9%	48%	67%	8.5%	1514	25.9	—	—
5	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P10	5.82	23.9%	37.0%	50%	71%	4.2%	1511	24.1	—	—
6	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	6.83	35.7%	65%	83%	92%	96%	3.6%
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	6.65	15.8%	77%	89%	94%	97%	3.0%
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	6.30	20.7%	62%	82%	92%	97%	3.2%
4	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	5.84	31.8%	48%	67%	84%	91%	8.5%
5	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	5.82	23.9%	50%	71%	86%	96%	4.2%
6	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	6.83	1513	1514	25.9	+16.5	+0.0
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	6.65	1516	1515	25.9	+17.5	-4.3
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P5	6.30	1515	1515	24.1	+14.5	+11.7
4	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P17	5.84	1514	1514	25.9	+2.5	-6.5
5	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P10	5.82	1511	1510	24.1	+9.5	+7.2
6	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:57