RACE 35 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Martinsville SpeedwayXfinity 500

DateSunday, October 26, 2025

Track TypeShort Track

Field37 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Martinsville Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:57

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:57

Best by Expected Points · Win 45.5%

William Byron • #24 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Joey Logano (47.5%) · Lowest DNF risk: Denny Hamlin (2.0%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

William Byron

Win 45.5% • Top-5 64% • EP 7.01

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 84% • DNF 2.0%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Chase Briscoe

Win prob 22.5% • Started P9

Risk Flag

Josh Berry

DNF prob 27.1%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 85/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

85/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

52%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.56

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 45.5%

Top-5 64%

Exp pts 7.01

Start P1

Driver ELO 1501

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win 47.5%

Top-5 61%

Exp pts 6.97

Start P4

Driver ELO 1506

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P4), strong organization rating.

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 40.2%

Top-5 63%

Exp pts 6.81

Start P12

Driver ELO 1511

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#22Joey Logano

47.5%

#24William Byron

45.5%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#24William Byron

54.5%

#22Joey Logano

54.1%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

67.1%

#5Kyle Larson

66.5%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

83.7%

#5Kyle Larson

80.8%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Best Value

#24William Byron

6.84

#22Joey Logano

6.80

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#21Josh Berry

27.1%

#51Cody Ware

24.6%

#7Justin Haley

— SUB

#66Casey Mears

— SUB

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P1	7.01	45.5%	54.5%	64%	80%	2.5%	1501	25.2	—	—
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P4	6.97	47.5%	54.1%	61%	79%	2.5%	1506	24.0	—	—
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P12	6.81	40.2%	51.8%	63%	80%	5.1%	1511	28.4	—	—
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	6.79	33.4%	50.0%	67%	81%	2.6%	1501	25.2	—	—
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	6.70	28.1%	47.6%	67%	84%	2.0%	1502	28.4	—	—
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	7.01	45.5%	64%	80%	90%	98%	2.5%
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	6.97	47.5%	61%	79%	89%	97%	2.5%
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.81	40.2%	63%	80%	90%	95%	5.1%
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	6.79	33.4%	67%	81%	93%	97%	2.6%
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.70	28.1%	67%	84%	93%	98%	2.0%
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P1	7.01	1501	1514	25.2	+18.0	-1.0
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P4	6.97	1506	1513	24.0	+15.0	+10.2
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P12	6.81	1511	1513	28.4	+7.0	-1.3
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	6.79	1501	1512	25.2	+16.0	+0.7
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	6.70	1502	1508	28.4	+14.0	-5.5
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 37 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:57