RACE 34 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Talladega SuperspeedwayYellaWood 500

DateSunday, October 19, 2025

Track TypeSuperspeedway

Field40 drivers

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Talladega Superspeedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:57

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:57

Best by Expected Points · Win 20.4%

Austin Cindric • #2 Team Penske

Why: front-row start (P4), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

Best Win odds: Kyle Larson (21.8%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Austin Cindric

Win 20.4% • Top-5 43% • EP 5.01

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Ryan Blaney

Top-10 prob 63% • DNF 11.5%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Daniel Suarez

Win prob 15.3% • Started P26

Risk Flag

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

DNF prob 37.0%

Race Confidence

CHAOS • 17/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L6 of superspeedway

17/100

CHAOS RACE

Plate-race outcomes diverge from the model — drafting luck and late wrecks dominate. Honesty over confidence.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

17%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.08

Chaos race Superspeedway results historically diverge from the model. Survival probability matters more than expected finish — read this card as guidance, not a forecast.

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#2 Team Penske

Austin Cindric

Win 20.4%

Top-5 43%

Exp pts 5.01

Start P4

Driver ELO 1509

Track-type ELO 1490

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P4), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 9.8%

Top-5 46%

Exp pts 4.88

Start P8

Driver ELO 1492

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 13.6%

Top-5 42%

Exp pts 4.81

Start P2

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1500

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#5Kyle Larson

21.8%

#2Austin Cindric

20.4%

#99Daniel Suarez

— SUB

#7Justin Haley

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#2Austin Cindric

31.6%

#19Chase Briscoe

27.9%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

45.8%

#2Austin Cindric

42.8%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

63.0%

#12Ryan Blaney

63.0%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Value

#2Austin Cindric

4.44

#12Ryan Blaney

4.32

#24William Byron

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

37.0%

#22Joey Logano

35.4%

#78B.J. McLeod

— SUB

#7Justin Haley

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

05 Full Projections

40 drivers • top 5 free40 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P4	5.01	20.4%	31.6%	43%	58%	11.3%	1509	24.3	—	—
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P8	4.88	9.8%	27.8%	46%	63%	11.5%	1492	24.3	—	—
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	4.81	13.6%	27.9%	42%	62%	17.6%	1514	28.1	—	—
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	4.63	10.7%	24.1%	38%	63%	18.3%	1514	28.1	—	—
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P19	4.63	21.8%	26.6%	31%	54%	19.4%	1515	25.9	—	—
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	62	Anthony Alfredo	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	5.01	20.4%	43%	58%	75%	89%	11.3%
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	4.88	9.8%	46%	63%	76%	88%	11.5%
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.81	13.6%	42%	62%	75%	82%	17.6%
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.63	10.7%	38%	63%	74%	82%	18.3%
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.63	21.8%	31%	54%	74%	81%	19.4%
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	62	Anthony Alfredo	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P4	5.01	1509	1490	24.3	+16.5	-15.8
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P8	4.88	1492	1515	24.3	+12.5	-11.2
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	4.81	1514	1500	28.1	+18.5	-0.5
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	4.63	1514	1507	28.1	+13.5	-3.7
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P19	4.63	1515	1510	25.9	+1.5	+5.8
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	62	Anthony Alfredo	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

35 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 40 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:57