RACE 33 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Las Vegas Motor SpeedwaySouth Point 400

DateSunday, October 12, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field38 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:57

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:57

Best by Expected Points · Win 54.5%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: Chase Briscoe (3.8%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 54.5% • Top-5 68% • EP 7.33

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Chase Briscoe

Top-10 prob 81% • DNF 3.8%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Chase Elliott

Win prob 24.6% • Started P4

Risk Flag

J.J. Yeley

DNF prob 30.4%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

35%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.49

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 54.5%

Top-5 68%

Exp pts 7.33

Start P1

Driver ELO 1502

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 39.4%

Top-5 68%

Exp pts 6.91

Start P2

Driver ELO 1507

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 34.2%

Top-5 56%

Exp pts 6.10

Start P5

Driver ELO 1509

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P5), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

54.5%

#19Chase Briscoe

39.4%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

61.3%

#19Chase Briscoe

53.5%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

68.2%

#19Chase Briscoe

67.6%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

81.6%

#19Chase Briscoe

81.0%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

6.81

#19Chase Briscoe

6.64

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#44J.J. Yeley

30.4%

#16A.J. Allmendinger

28.0%

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#78Katherine Legge

— SUB

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	7.33	54.5%	61.3%	68%	82%	7.2%	1502	27.9	—	—
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.91	39.4%	53.5%	68%	81%	3.8%	1507	27.9	—	—
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	6.10	34.2%	45.0%	56%	72%	14.0%	1509	25.8	—	—
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	5.63	28.0%	35.8%	44%	70%	11.4%	1514	27.9	—	—
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P6	5.35	18.7%	30.9%	43%	70%	14.0%	1515	25.8	—	—
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	7.33	54.5%	68%	82%	89%	93%	7.2%
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.91	39.4%	68%	81%	90%	96%	3.8%
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	6.10	34.2%	56%	72%	83%	86%	14.0%
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.63	28.0%	44%	70%	81%	89%	11.4%
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.35	18.7%	43%	70%	83%	86%	14.0%
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	7.33	1502	1514	27.9	+18.5	+5.2
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.91	1507	1512	27.9	+17.5	-6.3
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	6.10	1509	1509	25.8	+14.5	-6.3
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	5.63	1514	1514	27.9	+16.5	-3.5
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P6	5.35	1515	1511	25.8	+13.5	-0.8
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:57