RACE 32 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Charlotte Motor Speedway Road CourseBank of America ROVAL 400

DateSunday, October 5, 2025

Track TypeRoad Course

Field37 drivers

ROAD COURSE

Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course Updated 2026-03-17 08:57

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:57

Best by Expected Points · Win 48.2%

Chris Buescher • #17 RFK Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: Ryan Blaney (3.9%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Chris Buescher

Win 48.2% • Top-5 55% • EP 6.58

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Christopher Bell

Top-10 prob 75% • DNF 7.5%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

William Byron

Win prob 22.9% • Started P13

Risk Flag

John Hunter Nemechek

DNF prob 23.0%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 76/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L10 of road course

76/100

HIGH

Road courses introduce more variance. Specialists outperform the field; cautions tend to cluster late.

Win pick hit rate

30%

Top-5 hit rate

46%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#17 RFK Racing

Chris Buescher

Win 48.2%

Top-5 55%

Exp pts 6.58

Start P5

Driver ELO 1507

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 39.9%

Top-5 55%

Exp pts 6.35

Start P7

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P7).

#88 Trackhouse Racing

Shane van Gisbergen

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#88 Trackhouse Racing

Shane van Gisbergen

Win 37.3%

Top-5 62%

Exp pts 6.18

Start P2

Driver ELO 1509

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P2).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#17Chris Buescher

48.2%

#20Christopher Bell

39.9%

#88Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#17Chris Buescher

51.5%

#88Shane van Gisbergen

49.7%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#88Shane van Gisbergen

62.1%

#17Chris Buescher

54.9%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

75.4%

#17Chris Buescher

73.6%

#88Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Value

#17Chris Buescher

6.19

#20Christopher Bell

5.88

#88Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#42John Hunter Nemechek

23.0%

#10Ty Dillon

19.9%

#35Riley Herbst

— SUB

#8Kyle Busch

— SUB

#41Cole Custer

— SUB

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P5	6.58	48.2%	51.5%	55%	74%	5.9%	1507	25.1	—	—
2	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	6.35	39.9%	47.4%	55%	75%	7.5%	1514	27.7	—	—
3	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P2	6.18	37.3%	49.7%	62%	70%	11.6%	1509	21.4	—	—
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	5.17	11.3%	27.9%	44%	69%	6.6%	1514	27.7	—	—
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	4.96	14.4%	29.8%	45%	61%	8.4%	1499	27.7	—	—
6	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	6.58	48.2%	55%	74%	81%	94%	5.9%
2	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.35	39.9%	55%	75%	81%	93%	7.5%
3	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	6.18	37.3%	62%	70%	77%	88%	11.6%
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.17	11.3%	44%	69%	81%	93%	6.6%
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.96	14.4%	45%	61%	74%	92%	8.4%
6	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P5	6.58	1507	1513	25.1	+14.0	+5.3
2	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	6.35	1514	1514	27.7	+12.0	+9.7
3	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P2	6.18	1509	1514	21.4	+17.0	-0.8
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	5.17	1514	1512	27.7	+11.0	-2.5
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	4.96	1499	1494	27.7	+16.0	-9.5
6	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:57