RACE 31 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Kansas SpeedwayHollywood Casino 400

DateSunday, September 28, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field37 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Kansas Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:57

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:57

Best by Expected Points · Win 55.1%

Chase Briscoe • #19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

Top by every metric this week — Expected Points, Win odds, and DNF avoidance. See full picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Chase Briscoe

Win 55.1% • Top-5 74% • EP 7.55

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Chase Briscoe

Top-10 prob 84% • DNF 5.5%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Chris Buescher

Win prob 10.8% • Started P15

Risk Flag

Cody Ware

DNF prob 22.2%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 75/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

75/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 55.1%

Top-5 74%

Exp pts 7.55

Start P1

Driver ELO 1510

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 47.3%

Top-5 58%

Exp pts 6.46

Start P4

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 38.0%

Top-5 55%

Exp pts 6.13

Start P2

Driver ELO 1508

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

55.1%

#9Chase Elliott

47.3%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

64.4%

#9Chase Elliott

52.6%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

73.7%

#9Chase Elliott

58.0%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

83.8%

#9Chase Elliott

72.0%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Value

#19Chase Briscoe

7.13

#9Chase Elliott

5.55

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#51Cody Ware

22.2%

#44J.J. Yeley

20.2%

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

#99Daniel Suarez

— SUB

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	7.55	55.1%	64.4%	74%	84%	5.5%	1510	26.9	—	—
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	6.46	47.3%	52.6%	58%	72%	14.0%	1513	25.4	—	—
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.13	38.0%	46.3%	55%	70%	12.2%	1508	26.9	—	—
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	5.43	20.4%	34.5%	49%	67%	12.8%	1512	25.4	—	—
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P11	5.16	14.6%	31.2%	48%	65%	15.6%	1515	25.4	—	—
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	7.55	55.1%	74%	84%	90%	94%	5.5%
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	6.46	47.3%	58%	72%	79%	86%	14.0%
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.13	38.0%	55%	70%	81%	88%	12.2%
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.43	20.4%	49%	67%	81%	87%	12.8%
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.16	14.6%	48%	65%	81%	84%	15.6%
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	7.55	1510	1514	26.9	+18.0	-9.5
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	6.46	1513	1514	25.4	+15.0	+11.0
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.13	1508	1514	26.9	+17.0	+5.5
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	5.43	1512	1507	25.4	+16.0	-0.3
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P11	5.16	1515	1509	25.4	+8.0	-10.7
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:57