RACE 30 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

New Hampshire Motor SpeedwayMobil 1 301

DateSunday, September 21, 2025

Track TypeShort Track

Field36 drivers

SHORT TRACK

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:57

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:57

Best by Expected Points · Win 29.6%

Joey Logano • #22 Team Penske

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

Lowest DNF risk: William Byron (2.9%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Joey Logano

Win 29.6% • Top-5 54% • EP 6.09

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

William Byron

Top-10 prob 74% • DNF 2.9%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Josh Berry

Win prob 19.4% • Started P3

Risk Flag

Noah Gragson

DNF prob 23.0%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 94/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

94/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.60

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win 29.6%

Top-5 54%

Exp pts 6.09

Start P1

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 28.6%

Top-5 51%

Exp pts 5.83

Start P2

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 21.4%

Top-5 44%

Exp pts 5.78

Start P5

Driver ELO 1509

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P5), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#22Joey Logano

29.6%

#12Ryan Blaney

28.6%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#21Josh Berry

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#22Joey Logano

41.8%

#12Ryan Blaney

39.8%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#22Joey Logano

54.1%

#20Christopher Bell

52.1%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#24William Byron

74.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

73.5%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Value

#22Joey Logano

5.86

#24William Byron

5.61

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#4Noah Gragson

23.0%

#51Cody Ware

21.5%

#38Zane Smith

— SUB

#99Daniel Suarez

— SUB

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P1	6.09	29.6%	41.8%	54%	72%	3.8%	1514	24.0	—	—
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P2	5.83	28.6%	39.8%	51%	69%	5.9%	1515	24.0	—	—
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.78	21.4%	32.8%	44%	74%	2.9%	1509	25.6	—	—
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P18	5.67	28.0%	36.8%	46%	68%	8.4%	1512	26.6	—	—
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	5.49	8.0%	29.4%	51%	74%	3.0%	1497	26.6	—	—
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	6.09	29.6%	54%	72%	86%	96%	3.8%
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	5.83	28.6%	51%	69%	81%	94%	5.9%
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.78	21.4%	44%	74%	90%	97%	2.9%
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.67	28.0%	46%	68%	82%	92%	8.4%
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.49	8.0%	51%	74%	90%	97%	3.0%
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P1	6.09	1514	1513	24.0	+17.5	+10.5
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P2	5.83	1515	1514	24.0	+16.5	+10.2
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.78	1509	1509	25.6	+13.5	-3.3
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P18	5.67	1512	1511	26.6	+0.5	+6.5
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	5.49	1497	1497	26.6	+9.5	-4.3
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:57