RACE 29 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Bristol Motor SpeedwayBass Pro Shops Night Race

DateSaturday, September 13, 2025

Track TypeShort Track

Field39 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Bristol Motor Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 57.2%

Kyle Larson • #5 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

Top by every metric this week — Expected Points, Win odds, and DNF avoidance. See full picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Kyle Larson

Win 57.2% • Top-5 78% • EP 7.81

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Kyle Larson

Top-10 prob 85% • DNF 2.3%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Brad Keselowski

Win prob 18.0% • Started P18

Risk Flag

Chad Finchum

DNF prob 35.1%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 85/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

85/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

52%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.56

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 57.2%

Top-5 78%

Exp pts 7.81

Start P5

Driver ELO 1509

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 15.7%

Top-5 64%

Exp pts 6.23

Start P6

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1510

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6).

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 30.7%

Top-5 53%

Exp pts 5.99

Start P2

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#5Kyle Larson

57.2%

#12Ryan Blaney

30.7%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

67.4%

#12Ryan Blaney

42.0%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

77.6%

#11Denny Hamlin

63.8%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

85.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

81.5%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Value

#5Kyle Larson

7.63

#11Denny Hamlin

6.06

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#66Chad Finchum

35.1%

#67Corey Heim

28.8%

#33Austin Hill

— SUB

#4Noah Gragson

— SUB

#10Ty Dillon

— SUB

05 Full Projections

39 drivers • top 5 free39 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	7.81	57.2%	67.4%	78%	85%	2.3%	1509	25.9	—	—
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	6.23	15.7%	39.8%	64%	82%	2.8%	1516	27.1	—	—
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P2	5.99	30.7%	42.0%	53%	72%	5.9%	1515	23.8	—	—
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	5.87	12.5%	35.4%	58%	77%	3.5%	1513	27.1	—	—
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P7	5.81	20.5%	33.4%	46%	75%	3.5%	1510	25.9	—	—
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	7.81	57.2%	78%	85%	93%	98%	2.3%
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.23	15.7%	64%	82%	94%	97%	2.8%
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	5.99	30.7%	53%	72%	81%	94%	5.9%
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.87	12.5%	58%	77%	92%	96%	3.5%
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.81	20.5%	46%	75%	90%	97%	3.5%
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	7.81	1509	1513	25.9	+15.0	+5.8
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	6.23	1516	1510	27.1	+14.0	+1.2
3	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P2	5.99	1515	1514	23.8	+18.0	+7.8
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	5.87	1513	1503	27.1	+11.0	-3.3
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P7	5.81	1510	1509	25.9	+13.0	-3.3
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56