RACE 28 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

World Wide Technology Raceway at GatewayEnjoy Illinois 300

DateSunday, September 7, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field36 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 52.8%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: William Byron (6.5%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 52.8% • Top-5 69% • EP 7.32

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 82% • DNF 7.1%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Tyler Reddick

Win prob 17.3% • Started P7

Risk Flag

John Hunter Nemechek

DNF prob 31.7%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 52.8%

Top-5 69%

Exp pts 7.32

Start P1

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1510

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 41.9%

Top-5 72%

Exp pts 6.95

Start P6

Driver ELO 1503

Track-type ELO 1502

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P6), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 14.8%

Top-5 63%

Exp pts 5.83

Start P3

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

52.8%

#24William Byron

41.9%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

61.0%

#24William Byron

56.8%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#24William Byron

71.8%

#11Denny Hamlin

69.2%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

81.8%

#24William Byron

77.8%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

6.80

#24William Byron

6.50

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#42John Hunter Nemechek

31.7%

#43Erik Jones

30.3%

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

#35Riley Herbst

— SUB

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	7.32	52.8%	61.0%	69%	82%	7.1%	1513	26.8	—	—
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P6	6.95	41.9%	56.8%	72%	78%	6.5%	1503	25.6	—	—
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	5.83	14.8%	38.7%	63%	76%	9.0%	1516	26.8	—	—
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	5.46	26.4%	36.9%	47%	63%	13.2%	1504	25.6	—	—
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P5	4.91	11.7%	23.0%	34%	65%	8.0%	1505	23.5	—	—
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	7.32	52.8%	69%	82%	89%	93%	7.1%
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	6.95	41.9%	72%	78%	88%	94%	6.5%
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.83	14.8%	63%	76%	85%	91%	9.0%
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.46	26.4%	47%	63%	80%	87%	13.2%
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	4.91	11.7%	34%	65%	83%	92%	8.0%
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	7.32	1513	1510	26.8	+17.5	+5.3
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P6	6.95	1503	1502	25.6	+12.5	-10.2
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	5.83	1516	1515	26.8	+15.5	-12.3
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	5.46	1504	1503	25.6	+16.5	+4.7
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P5	4.91	1505	1504	23.5	+13.5	-2.3
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

31 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56