RACE 27 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Darlington RacewayCook Out Southern 500

DateSunday, August 31, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field38 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Darlington Raceway Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 62.2%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: William Byron (6.3%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 62.2% • Top-5 72% • EP 7.56

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

William Byron

Top-10 prob 80% • DNF 6.3%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Bubba Wallace

Win prob 15.1% • Started P8

Risk Flag

Erik Jones

DNF prob 30.8%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 62.2%

Top-5 72%

Exp pts 7.56

Start P1

Driver ELO 1502

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 37.4%

Top-5 75%

Exp pts 6.94

Start P11

Driver ELO 1504

Track-type ELO 1506

Why this pick Why: strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 28.1%

Top-5 58%

Exp pts 6.00

Start P2

Driver ELO 1502

Track-type ELO 1505

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P2), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

62.2%

#24William Byron

37.4%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

67.0%

#24William Byron

56.0%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#24William Byron

74.6%

#11Denny Hamlin

71.8%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

80.5%

#24William Byron

80.4%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

6.92

#24William Byron

6.51

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#43Erik Jones

30.8%

#44Derek Kraus

28.8%

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	7.56	62.2%	67.0%	72%	80%	8.5%	1502	27.2	—	—
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P11	6.94	37.4%	56.0%	75%	80%	6.3%	1504	25.9	—	—
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.00	28.1%	43.0%	58%	72%	9.3%	1502	27.2	—	—
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.94	37.0%	44.1%	51%	69%	14.4%	1513	25.9	—	—
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	4.56	10.6%	21.3%	32%	58%	11.8%	1509	27.2	—	—
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	44	Derek Kraus	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Timmy Hill	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	7.56	62.2%	72%	80%	87%	91%	8.5%
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	6.94	37.4%	75%	80%	89%	94%	6.3%
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.00	28.1%	58%	72%	83%	91%	9.3%
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.94	37.0%	51%	69%	79%	86%	14.4%
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.56	10.6%	32%	58%	78%	88%	11.8%
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	44	Derek Kraus	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Timmy Hill	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	7.56	1502	1514	27.2	+18.5	+7.0
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P11	6.94	1504	1506	25.9	+8.5	-8.3
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.00	1502	1505	27.2	+17.5	-12.8
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.94	1513	1513	25.9	+14.5	+1.2
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	4.56	1509	1510	27.2	+12.5	+1.0
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	44	Derek Kraus	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Timmy Hill	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

33 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56