RACE 26 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Daytona International SpeedwayCoke Zero Sugar 400

DateSaturday, August 23, 2025

Track TypeSuperspeedway

Field40 drivers

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Daytona International Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 31.1%

William Byron • #24 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: Austin Cindric (11.3%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

William Byron

Win 31.1% • Top-5 43% • EP 5.38

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 65% • DNF 16.0%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Ryan Blaney

Win prob 18.5% • Started P1

Risk Flag

B.J. McLeod

DNF prob 41.4%

Race Confidence

CHAOS • 18/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L7 of superspeedway

18/100

CHAOS RACE

Plate-race outcomes diverge from the model — drafting luck and late wrecks dominate. Honesty over confidence.

Win pick hit rate

14%

Top-5 hit rate

14%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.10

Chaos race Superspeedway results historically diverge from the model. Survival probability matters more than expected finish — read this card as guidance, not a forecast.

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 31.1%

Top-5 43%

Exp pts 5.38

Start P8

Driver ELO 1508

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 26.7%

Top-5 42%

Exp pts 5.07

Start P9

Driver ELO 1508

Track-type ELO 1505

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P9), strong organization rating. Watch-out: elevated DNF risk (19%).

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 13.7%

Top-5 50%

Exp pts 5.07

Start P6

Driver ELO 1511

Track-type ELO 1500

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#24William Byron

31.1%

#5Kyle Larson

28.9%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#24William Byron

36.9%

#5Kyle Larson

34.7%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

50.2%

#24William Byron

42.7%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

65.0%

#24William Byron

59.7%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Best Value

#24William Byron

4.63

#11Denny Hamlin

4.26

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#78B.J. McLeod

41.4%

#66Casey Mears

35.9%

#42John Hunter Nemechek

— SUB

#4Noah Gragson

— SUB

#33Austin Hill

— SUB

05 Full Projections

40 drivers • top 5 free40 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	5.38	31.1%	36.9%	43%	60%	13.8%	1508	26.4	—	—
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	5.07	26.7%	34.4%	42%	59%	18.8%	1508	27.3	—	—
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	5.07	13.7%	31.9%	50%	65%	16.0%	1511	27.3	—	—
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	4.92	28.9%	34.7%	40%	53%	19.2%	1512	26.4	—	—
5	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P5	4.75	21.8%	29.1%	36%	55%	11.3%	1513	24.5	—	—
6	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	Joey Gase	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.38	31.1%	43%	60%	77%	86%	13.8%
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.07	26.7%	42%	59%	72%	81%	18.8%
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.07	13.7%	50%	65%	76%	84%	16.0%
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.92	28.9%	40%	53%	69%	81%	19.2%
5	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	4.75	21.8%	36%	55%	69%	89%	11.3%
6	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	Joey Gase	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	5.38	1508	1511	26.4	+12.5	+5.5
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	5.07	1508	1505	27.3	+11.5	+3.5
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	5.07	1511	1500	27.3	+14.5	-11.7
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	4.92	1512	1511	26.4	+17.5	+7.3
5	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P5	4.75	1513	1513	24.5	+15.5	-12.8
6	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	Joey Gase	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56