RACE 25 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Richmond RacewayCook Out 400

DateSaturday, August 16, 2025

Track TypeShort Track

Field38 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Richmond Raceway Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 25.9%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: front-row start (P4), strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Brad Keselowski (31.1%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 25.9% • Top-5 63% • EP 6.47

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Chase Elliott

Top-10 prob 83% • DNF 3.1%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Ryan Preece

Win prob 25.1% • Started P1

Risk Flag

Jesse Love

DNF prob 25.0%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 91/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

91/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.57

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 25.9%

Top-5 63%

Exp pts 6.47

Start P4

Driver ELO 1500

Track-type ELO 1500

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P4), strong organization rating.

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 22.5%

Top-5 52%

Exp pts 6.22

Start P5

Driver ELO 1500

Track-type ELO 1507

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P5), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#6 RFK Racing

Brad Keselowski

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#6 RFK Racing

Brad Keselowski

Win 31.1%

Top-5 48%

Exp pts 6.04

Start P6

Driver ELO 1497

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#6Brad Keselowski

31.1%

#11Denny Hamlin

25.9%

#60Ryan Preece

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

44.5%

#6Brad Keselowski

39.8%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#60Ryan Preece

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

63.1%

#20Christopher Bell

55.1%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#9Chase Elliott

82.7%

#11Denny Hamlin

80.0%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

6.30

#9Chase Elliott

6.03

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#60Ryan Preece

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#33Jesse Love

25.0%

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

25.0%

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

#34Todd Gilliland

— SUB

#67Corey Heim

— SUB

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	6.47	25.9%	44.5%	63%	80%	2.6%	1500	27.1	—	—
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	6.22	22.5%	37.5%	52%	83%	3.1%	1500	26.8	—	—
3	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P6	6.04	31.1%	39.8%	48%	73%	2.6%	1497	24.1	—	—
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	5.85	15.9%	35.5%	55%	75%	4.5%	1516	27.1	—	—
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P14	5.36	20.0%	31.3%	43%	66%	8.6%	1514	26.8	—	—
6	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.47	25.9%	63%	80%	93%	97%	2.6%
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	6.22	22.5%	52%	83%	93%	97%	3.1%
3	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	6.04	31.1%	48%	73%	85%	97%	2.6%
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.85	15.9%	55%	75%	90%	96%	4.5%
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.36	20.0%	43%	66%	83%	91%	8.6%
6	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	6.47	1500	1500	27.1	+15.5	+2.7
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	6.22	1500	1507	26.8	+14.5	-2.5
3	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	P6	6.04	1497	1514	24.1	+13.5	+1.2
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	5.85	1516	1505	27.1	+11.5	-0.8
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P14	5.36	1514	1516	26.8	+5.5	-2.8
6	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

33 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56