RACE 24 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Watkins Glen InternationalGo Bowling at The Glen

DateSunday, August 10, 2025

Track TypeRoad Course

Field39 drivers

ROAD COURSE

Watkins Glen International Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 36.9%

Christopher Bell • #20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P9), strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Chase Briscoe (40.5%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Christopher Bell

Win 36.9% • Top-5 58% • EP 6.23

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Christopher Bell

Top-10 prob 71% • DNF 5.1%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Shane van Gisbergen

Win prob 25.0% • Started P2

Risk Flag

Katherine Legge

DNF prob 29.8%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 78/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L8 of road course

78/100

HIGH

Road courses introduce more variance. Specialists outperform the field; cautions tend to cluster late.

Win pick hit rate

38%

Top-5 hit rate

50%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.49

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 36.9%

Top-5 58%

Exp pts 6.23

Start P9

Driver ELO 1506

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P9), strong organization rating.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 40.5%

Top-5 55%

Exp pts 6.10

Start P3

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 30.5%

Top-5 48%

Exp pts 5.46

Start P20

Driver ELO 1507

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

40.5%

#20Christopher Bell

36.9%

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#88Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#19Chase Briscoe

47.9%

#20Christopher Bell

47.5%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

#88Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

58.0%

#19Chase Briscoe

55.3%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#88Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

70.8%

#19Chase Briscoe

67.4%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

Best Value

#20Christopher Bell

5.91

#19Chase Briscoe

5.35

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#88Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#78Katherine Legge

29.8%

#44J.J. Yeley

29.0%

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

#66Josh Bilicki

— SUB

#38Zane Smith

— SUB

05 Full Projections

39 drivers • top 5 free39 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	6.23	36.9%	47.5%	58%	71%	5.1%	1506	27.1	—	—
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	6.10	40.5%	47.9%	55%	67%	12.4%	1516	27.1	—	—
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P20	5.46	30.5%	39.2%	48%	60%	9.9%	1507	27.6	—	—
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P14	5.32	21.2%	34.2%	47%	63%	8.7%	1503	27.1	—	—
5	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	P4	5.23	32.9%	37.7%	43%	57%	15.5%	1509	20.7	—	—
6	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.23	36.9%	58%	71%	80%	95%	5.1%
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.10	40.5%	55%	67%	78%	88%	12.4%
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	5.46	30.5%	48%	60%	74%	90%	9.9%
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.32	21.2%	47%	63%	78%	91%	8.7%
5	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	5.23	32.9%	43%	57%	71%	85%	15.5%
6	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	6.23	1506	1512	27.1	+11.0	+9.0
2	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	6.10	1516	1514	27.1	+17.0	-1.2
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P20	5.46	1507	1513	27.6	+0.0	+6.3
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P14	5.32	1503	1511	27.1	+6.0	-7.5
5	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	P4	5.23	1509	1499	20.7	+16.0	-6.5
6	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

34 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 39 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56